DANIEL EGEL, GABRIELLE TARINI, RAYMOND KUO, ERIC ROBINSON, ANTHONY VASSALO
Can the United States
Deter Threats from
Uncertain Origins?
Examining the Cases of Havana
Syndrome, SolarWinds, and the Chinese
Mafia
F
or years, a diplomatic mystery spanning multiple countries—involving speculation about
foreign adversary attacks and high-tech, undetectable weapons—vexed U.S. officials. The
mystery began in late 2016, when diplomats and intelligence officers at the U.S. embassy in
Cuba reported hearing strange sounds, followed by headaches, dizziness, blurred vision,
and memory loss. Since then, similar incidents—which the U.S. government has termed anomalous
health incidents but are colloquially known as Havana Syndrome—have been reported by U.S. gov-
ernment personnel in 70 different countries, including China and Russia.
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Debate has raged within U.S. government agencies over whether such events are merely a
medical anomaly or actually the product of a nation-state or nonstate actor attack on U.S. officials
around the globe. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the U.S. Department of State have
established numerous panels and
analytical teams to investigate the
cause of the incidents. No U.S. rival
has taken public responsibility. The
incidents sent the intelligence and
diplomatic communities into a years-
long tailspin involving more ques-
tions than answers. In March 2023,
the U.S. Intelligence Community
(IC) judged that it was unlikely or
very unlikely that a foreign adver-
sary bore responsibility for Havana
C O R P O R A T I O N
KEY FINDINGS
■ The ability of the United States to respond effectively to a threat is
limited when the attribution, nature, and method of the threat are
ambiguous.
■ Maintaining this level of ambiguity likely constrains the scale at
which U.S. adversaries can deploy these approaches, but the
costs the approaches impose can be large.
■ Despite the appeal of other deterrence or punishment strategies,
denial-by-defense is likely to be the only approach capable of
reducing the efficacy of these threats.
Research Report
