Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 27
Mason Clark
March 27, 4:30 pm ET
Russian forces have not abandoned efforts to reconstitute forces northwest of Kyiv to resume major
offensive operations, and the commander of Russia’s Eastern Military District (EMD) may be
personally commanding the operations. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia’s 35th
Combined Arms Army is rotating damaged units into Belarus and that Russian forces established a
command post for all EMD forces operating around Kyiv in the Chernobyl area. Ongoing Russian efforts
to replace combat losses in EMD units and deploy additional reinforcements forward are unlikely to
enable Russia to successfully resume major operations around Kyiv in the near future. The increasingly
static nature of the fighting around Kyiv reflects the incapacity of Russian forces rather than any shift in
Russian objectives or efforts at this time.
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited counterattacks in several locations, recapturing territory
east of Kyiv, in Sumy Oblast, and around Kharkiv in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian counterattacks are likely
enabling Ukrainian forces to recapture key terrain and disrupt Russian efforts to resume major offensive
operations. Likely escalating Ukrainian partisan operations around Kherson are additionally tying down
Russian forces. Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress in Mariupol, but Russian
assaults largely failed elsewhere in the past 24 hours.
Key Takeaways
• Russian Eastern Military District (EMD) Commander Colonel-General Alexander Chayko may
be personally commanding efforts to regroup Russian forces in Belarus and resume operations
to encircle Kyiv from the west. The Kremlin is highly unlikely to have abandoned its efforts to
encircle Kyiv but will likely be unable to cohere the combat power necessary to resume major
offensive operations in the near future.
• Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces conducted major operations northwest of Kyiv in the last
24 hours.
• Ukrainian forces counterattacking east of Brovary since March 24 successfully retook territory
late on March 26.
• Ukrainian forces conducted limited counterattacks in Sumy Oblast on March 26-27.
• Fighting continued around Izyum in the past 24 hours, with little territory changing hands.
• Russian forces continued steady advances in Mariupol.
• Ukrainian partisans around Kherson continue to tie down Rosgvardia units in the region, likely
hindering Russian capabilities to resume offensive operations in the southern direction.
The Ukrainian General Staff continued to report Russian difficulties to replace personnel and
equipment losses. The General Staff reported on March 27 that Russian forces are increasingly using old
and substandard ammunition, leading to a rise in the rate of accidents at Russian arsenals and depots,
particularly highlighting the use of old munitions by the 35th Combined Arms Army’s 165th Artillery
Brigade, operating northwest of Kyiv.
