1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 30, 5:30 pm ET
Russia is withdrawing some elements of its forces around Kyiv into Belarus for likely
redeployment to other axes of advance and did not conduct any offensive operations
around the city in the past 24 hours, but Russian forces will likely continue to hold their
forwardmost positions and shell Ukrainian forces and residential areas. Ukrainian forces
repelled several Russian attacks in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the past 24 hours and Russian
forces likely continued to take territory in Mariupol. Russian forces held their positions and did not
conduct offensive operations throughout the rest of the country. Russian forces will likely capture
Mariupol in the coming days but likely suffered high casualties taking the city, and Russian force
generation efforts and the redeployment of damaged units from the Kyiv axis are increasingly unlikely
to enable Russian forces to make rapid gains in the Donbas region.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces around Kyiv held their forward positions and continued to defend
against limited Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces are unlikely to give up
their secured territory around the city and are continuing to dig in.
• ISW can confirm Russia is withdrawing some units around Kyiv for likely
redeployment to other axes of advance, but cannot confirm any changes in Russian
force posture around Chernihiv as of this time.
• Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine
in the past 24 hours.
• Elements of the 20th Combined Arms Army and 1st Guards Tank Army are
redeploying to support Russian operations on Izyum, but are unlikely to take the
city in the near future.
• Ukrainian forces repelled continuing Russian assaults in Luhansk and Donetsk
Oblasts. Russian forces continued to take territory in Mariupol but are likely
suffering high casualties.
