1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, and George Barros
June 6, 7:15 pm ET
Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is
updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
The nature of urban combat in Severodonetsk is likely obfuscating reports of control of
terrain within the city, though Russian forces likely retain control over much of the city.
Head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration Serhiy Haidai claimed on June 5 that Ukrainian
forces managed to retake large parts of Severodonetsk and push Russian forces to the outskirts of the
city during successful urban counterattacks.
Ukrainian journalist Yuri Butusov, however, denied
Haidai’s claims on June 5 and claimed that Ukrainian forces only control the Azot industrial sector of
Severodonetsk. Haidai amended his claims on June 6 and reported that the situation in Severodonetsk
has deteriorated significantly, adding that Ukrainian forces were indeed fighting within the Azot
industrial site on June 6.
The reason for Haidai and Butusov’s conflicting reports is unclear, and heavy
urban fighting is ongoing in the city.
Ukrainian naval forces are challenging Russian dominance over the northwestern part
of the Black Sea and claimed to be preventing Russian warships from operating close to
the shoreline. The Ukrainian Navy reported on June 6 that they had succeeded in pushing a grouping
of the Russian Black Sea Fleet more than 100 km away from the Ukrainian coast but did not specify a
timeframe for this statement.
The report additionally stated that Russian naval forces have
subsequently had to change their tactics in the Black Sea and are relying more heavily on Bal and
Bastion coastal defense systems in occupied Kherson and Crimea rather than seaborne air defenses.
The UK Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces have been strengthening their air defense
assets on Snake Island, and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces deployed
additional S-300 air defense battalions to Crimea.
Taken together, these reports suggest that
Ukrainian naval pressure and anti-ship missiles—likely including those provided by the UK and other
states—have forced the Russian grouping in the northwestern Black Sea to rely more on coastal and air
defense as they are pushed away from the Ukrainian shoreline. Ukraine will likely attempt to leverage
these successes to alleviate the economic pressure of the Russian blockade on Ukraine’s ports and seek
additional economic support from the west, including possibly opening up new routes for international
aid to Ukraine.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces likely retain control over most of Severodonetsk as of June 6, though the exact
situation in the city remains unclear. Control of terrain is likely changing hands frequently.
• Russian forces in the Izyum area did not make any confirmed advances, while forces advancing
west from Lyman secured minor gains.
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful attempts to sever Ukrainian lines of communication
northeast of Bakhmut.
• Limited and localized Ukrainian counterattacks on June 5 forced Russian troops to focus on
holding defensive lines north of Kharkiv City on June 6.
• Russian occupation authorities are advancing efforts to issue Russian passports to Ukrainian
citizens and cement their control over occupied territories.
• The Ukrainian Navy claimed to have pushed the Russian Black Sea Fleet more than 100 km
from the Ukrainian coast, likely to reduce the pressure of the Russian blockade on Ukraine’s
southern ports.
