1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30
Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, and George Barros
May 30, 3:30pm ET
Mounting casualties among Russian junior officers will likely further degrade Russian
capabilities and lead to further morale breakdowns. The UK Ministry of Defense stated on May
30 that Russian forces have suffered devastating losses amongst mid and junior ranking officers. The
UK MoD reported that battalion and brigade level officers continue to deploy forwards and into harm's
way—rather than commanding from rear areas and delegating to lower-ranking officers—due to senior
Russian officers holding them to an “uncompromising level of responsibility” for their units.
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The
British Defense Ministry further reported that junior officers are in charge of low-level tactical
operations due to a lack of professionalism and modernization within the Russian Armed Forces and
that the continued losses of these junior officers will complicate command and control efforts,
particularly in Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) cobbled together from the survivors of multiple other
units.
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ISW previously assessed that continued demoralization and poor command and control among
Russian forces could present Ukrainian forces opportunities to conduct prudent counteroffensives,
particularly as the Russian military continues to pour resources into the battle of Severodonetsk at the
cost of other lines of effort.
Domestic dissent within Russian military circles, claiming that the Kremlin is not doing
enough to win the war, continues to grow. Former Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) officer
Igor Girkin (also known as Strelkov) condemned Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statements
about the priority of the “special operation” in Ukraine being the liberation of the Donbas.
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Girkin
claimed that the Kremlin has forgone the ideological underpinnings of the conflict by focusing the
conflict on the Donbas, rather than the entirety of Ukraine. Girkin complained that Kremlin officials
are no longer questioning the legitimacy of the existence of Ukraine and that the concepts of
“denazification” and “demilitarization” have been forgotten. Girkin accused the Kremlin of
appeasement policies and stated that the threat of defeat continues to grow.
Girkin’s dissent is emblematic of continued shifts within circles of Russian military enthusiasts and ex-
servicemen. As ISW has previously reported, the Kremlin has repeatedly revised its objectives for the
war in Ukraine downwards due to battlefield failures. The Kremlin is increasingly facing discontent not
from Russians opposed to the war as a whole, but military and nationalist figures angry at Russian
losses and frustrated with shifting Kremlin framing of the war. Russian officials are increasingly unable
to employ the same ideological justifications for the invasion in the face of clear setbacks, and a lack of
concrete military gains within Ukraine will continue to foment domestic dissatisfaction with the war.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces continued to incrementally capture areas of Severodonetsk but have not yet fully
encircled the city.
Russian forces focused on regrouping near Izyum to renew offensives towards Slovyansk and
Barvinkove and conducted only minor, unsuccessful, attacks. Russian forces are making
incremental advances towards Slovyansk and seek to assault the city itself in the coming weeks,
but are unlikely to achieve decisive gains.
