1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko and Mason Clark
May 27, 7:30pm ET
Russian forces began direct assaults on Severodonetsk on May 27 despite not yet having
fully encircled the town. Russian forces have performed poorly in operations in built-up urban
terrain throughout the war to date and are unlikely to be able to advance rapidly in Severodonetsk itself.
Russian forces continue to make steady and incremental gains around the city but have not yet encircled
the Ukrainian defenders. Ukrainian forces continue to maintain defenses across eastern Ukraine and
have slowed most Russian lines of advance. Russian forces will likely continue to make incremental
advances and may succeed in encircling Severodonetsk in the coming days, but Russian operations
around Izyum remain stalled and Russian forces will likely be unable to increase the pace of their
advances.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of Severodonetsk without
having fully encircled the city and will likely struggle to take ground in the city
itself.
• Russian forces in Lyman appear to be dividing their efforts—attacking both
southwest to support stalled forces in Izyum and southeast to advance on Siversk;
they will likely struggle to accomplish either objective in the coming days.
• Russian forces in Popasna seek to advance north to support the encirclement of
Severodonestk rather than advancing west toward Bakhmut.
• Positions northeast of Kharkiv City remain largely static, with no major attacks by
either Russian or Ukrainian forces.
• Russian forces continue to fortify their defensive positions along the southern axis
and advance efforts to integrate the Kherson region into Russian economic and
political structures.
