1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, and Mason Clark
May 24, 7:00 pm ET
Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to complete a single large encirclement of
Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and are instead attempting to secure smaller
encirclements—enabling them to make incremental measured gains. Russian forces are
likely attempting to achieve several simultaneous encirclements of small pockets of Ukrainian forces in
Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts: the broader Severodonetsk area (including Rubizhne and Lysychansk),
Bakhmut-Lysychansk, around Zolote (just northeast of Popasna), and around Ukrainian fortifications
in Avdiivka. Russian forces have begun steadily advancing efforts in these different encirclements daily
but have not achieved any major “breakthroughs” or made major progress towards their stated
objectives of securing the Donetsk Oblast borders or seizing all of Donbas. Luhansk Oblast
Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Ukrainian forces only controlled approximately 10
percent of Luhansk Oblast as of May 15 (compared to 30 percent prior to the full-scale Russian invasion
on February 24, 2022).
Russian forces have secured more terrain in the past week than efforts earlier
in May. However, they have done so by reducing the scope of their objectives—largely abandoning
operations around Izyum and concentrating on key frontline towns: Russian performance remains
poor.
Russian forces will additionally likely face protracted urban combat if they successfully
encircle Severodonetsk (as well as in other large towns like Bakhmut), which Russian
forces have struggled with throughout the war. Russian forces are committing a significant
number of their troops, artillery, and aircraft to defeat Ukrainian defenders in Luhansk Oblast and are
likely pulling necessary resources from the Izyum axis, defensive positions around Kharkiv City,
Donetsk City, and the Zaporizhia area. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai has
previously compared Ukrainian forces in Luhansk Oblast to the previous defenders of Mariupol, which
aimed to wear out Russian forces and prevent further offensive operations.
The UK Defense Ministry
also noted that a Russian victory over Severodonetsk will only worsen Russian logistical issues and
extend Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs).
Russian forces are making greater
advances in the past week than throughout the rest of May—but these advances remain
slow, confined to smaller objectives than the Kremlin intended, and face continued
Ukrainian defenses; they do not constitute a major breakthrough.
Senior Kremlin officials are increasingly openly admitting that the Russian offensive in
Ukraine is moving slower than anticipated and are grasping for explanations to justify
the slow pace. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Russian operations in Ukraine
are progressing slowly because Russian forces want to afford civilians the opportunity to evacuate,
though Russian forces have targeted Ukrainian civilians throughout the war and repeatedly denied
Ukrainian attempts to negotiate humanitarian evacuation corridors.
Shoigu’s statement is notably his
first admission that Russian forces are behind schedule and is the first official statement on the pace of
the war since Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that the operation was “dragging” on
May 4.
Russian milbloggers are criticizing Shoigu’s claimed consideration for civilians and claimed
that Soviet troops would not have cared if “Nazi” civilians evacuated, part of the growing Russian
nationalist reaction that the Kremlin is not doing enough to win the war in Ukraine.
Director of the
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergey Naryshkin stated that the ultimate goal of the Russian
offensive is to ensure “Nazism” is “100% eradicated, or it will rear its head in a few years, and in an even
uglier form.”
Naryshkin and Shoigu’s statements indicate that Russian officials are likely setting
conditions for a protracted war in Ukraine in order to justify slower and more measured advances than
initially anticipated.
