1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, and George Barros
May 23, 6:00 pm ET
Russian nationalist figures are increasingly criticizing the failures of Russia’s “special
military operation” in Ukraine and are calling for further mobilization that the Kremlin
likely remains unwilling and unable to pursue in the short term. The All-Russian Officers
Assembly, an independent pro-Russian veterans’ association that seeks to reform Russian military
strategy, called for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin to declare war on Ukraine and
introduce partial mobilization in Russia on May 19.
The Assembly said that Russia’s “special military
operation” failed to achieve its goals in three months, especially after the failed Siverskyi Donets River
crossings. ISW previously assessed that the destruction of nearly an entire Russian battalion tactical
group (BTG) during a failed river crossing on May 11 shocked Russian military observers and prompted
them to question Russian competence.
The Assembly’s appeal called on Putin to recognize that
Russian forces are no longer only “denazifying” Ukraine but are fighting a war for Russia’s historic
territories and existence in the world order. The officers demanded that the Kremlin mobilize all regions
bordering NATO countries (including Ukraine), form territorial defense squads, extend standard
military service terms from one year to two, and form new supreme wartime administrations over
Russia, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR), and newly occupied Ukrainian
settlements. The officers also demanded the death penalty for deserters.
The Assembly’s letter may be a leading indicator of elements of the Russian government
and society setting informational conditions to declare partial mobilization. However,
the Kremlin has so far declined to take this step likely due to concerns over domestic
backlash and flaws in Russia’s mobilization systems.
The All-Russian Officers Assembly
called on Putin to recognize the independence of the DNR and LNR three weeks prior to the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, setting conditions for the Russian “special military operation.”
Russian Defense
Minister Sergey Shoigu announced on May 20 that Russia will form 12 new Western Military District
units (of unspecified echelon) before the end of the year in response to NATO expansion.
Russian
forces may intend to man these units with newly mobilized personnel, as it is unclear how else the
Kremlin could generate the manpower for new units. The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that
Russian forces are withdrawing old T-62 tanks from storage to form new BTGs.
Russia is likely
continuing to exhaust its remaining combat-ready reserves to maintain the momentum of the Battle of
Severodonetsk, rather than prioritizing preparations for new reinforcements. ISW previously assessed
that Russian mobilization is unlikely to generate combat-ready force due to hasty training.
More Russians supportive of the Kremlin and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are
beginning to criticize the Kremlin openly. Russian milbloggers claimed that the Kremlin will not
honor the Officers Assembly appeal, indicating an intensifying negative perception of the Russian
leadership among Russians supportive of the war in Ukraine.
Kaliningrad Oblast Governor Anton
Alikhanov publicly stated that the Russian war in Ukraine has disrupted transport routes and
construction schedules in the region, a rare admission of the economic cost of the war from a Russian
government official.
The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian military personnel are
increasingly complaining about the ineffectiveness of offensive operations against Ukrainian troops.
Unidentified assailants continued attacks against military recruitment offices in Russia
on May 23, indicating growing discontent with conscription.
A Russian Telegram channel
reported that an unknown attacker threw a Molotov cocktail at the military recruitment office in the
Udmurtia region, which follows a May 19 incident wherein a Russian conscript shot at a recruitment
office in Zheleznogorsk-Ilimsky (Irkutsk Oblast) with a pneumatic device.
