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俄罗斯进攻性战役评估，2022年5月22日

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时间：2023-06-20

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1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Mason Clark
May 22, 4:00 pm ET
Russian forces made only minimal gains in eastern Ukraine on May 22. New reporting
confirmed that Russian troops previously recaptured Rubizhne in northern Kharkiv Oblast, on May 19.
Russian forces are likely committing additional reinforcements to hold their positions on the west bank
of the Siverskyi Donets River in northern Kharkiv—rather than withdrawing across the river to use it
as a defensive position—to prevent any further Ukrainian advances to the north or the east that could
threaten Russian lines of communication to the Izyum axis.
1
Ukrainian sources additionally confirmed
previous Russian-claimed advances around Popasna, and Russian forces likely seek to open a new line
of advance north from Popasna to complete the encirclement of Severodonetsk while simultaneously
driving west toward Bakhmut, though Russian forces are unlikely to be able to fully resource both lines
of advance simultaneously.
Key Takeaways
• Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces have secured local advances to
the north and west of Popasna since at least May 20. Russian forces likely seek to
push further west toward Bakhmut and north to support the encirclement of
Severodonetsk but remain unlikely to achieve rapid advances.
• Russian forces will likely attempt to hold positions west of the Siverskyi Donets
River against Ukrainian attacks (rather than retreating across the river) to prevent
further Ukrainian advances from threatening Russian lines of communication to
Izyum.
• Russian occupying forces continued filtration and deportation procedures in and
around Mariupol.
• Russian forces are likely preparing to resume offensives on the southern axis.
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