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俄罗斯进攻性战役评估，2022年5月20日

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时间：2023-06-20

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上传者：神经蛙1号
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20
Karolina Hird, Frederick W. Kagan, and George Barros
May 20, 5:30 ET
Russian forces are focusing on digging in and reinforcing defensive positions in Kharkiv and
along the Southern Axis in preparation for Ukrainian counteroffensives, while the majority of
active offensive operations remain confined to Izyum-Donetsk City arc and especially the
Popasna-Severodonetsk area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are creating
secondary defensive lines on the Southern Axis, indicating that the Russian grouping in this area may be
preparing for a major Ukrainian counter-offensive and a protracted conflict.
1
Russian forces reportedly are
holding defensive positions north of Kharkiv City following the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive since
May 5 and have conducted limited spoiling attacks either to give Russian forces time to complete their
redeployment back to Russia in good order or to allow reinforcements to arrive to defend territory in Kharkiv
Oblast. Significant Russian offensive operations are confined to the area of Severodonetsk. Russian troops have
made marginal gains to the north, west, and south of the city, especially around Popasna, in order to attempt to
take control of Severodonetsk.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces may have made marginal gains to the north, west, and south of Popasna
in order to continue their offensive on Severodonetsk from the south.
• Russian sources may be overstating the number of Ukrainian defenders who have been
evacuated from Azovstal to either maximize the number of Russian prisoners of war who
may be exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers or to avoid the embarrassment of admitting
they have been locked into a months-long siege against only “hundreds” of Ukrainian
soldiers.
• Russian troops reportedly regained certain positions taken by the Ukrainian
counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces are likely preparing for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive and
protracted conflict on the Southern Axis.
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