1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan
May 19, 5:30 pm ET
Ukrainian military officials reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the
Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western Donetsk Oblast on May 19. The Ukrainian
General Staff said that 260 servicemen withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis arrived to replace the
significant combat losses that the 107th Motorized Rifle Battalion has taken approximately 20 km
southwest of Donetsk City.
The Ukrainian Military Directorate (GUR) intercepted a Russian
serviceman’s call suggesting that some of the 400 servicemen from the Kharkiv City axis who had
arrived elsewhere in Donbas were shocked by the intensity of the fighting there compared with what
they had experienced in Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian forces are continuing to suffer shortages of reserve manpower, causing the
Russian military command to consolidate depleted battalion tactical groups (BTGs). An
unnamed US defense official reported that Russian forces still have 106 BTGs operating in Ukraine but
had to disband and combine some to compensate for losses.
Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations
Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov reported that Russian forces are combining units of the Pacific and
Northern Fleets at the permanent locations of the 40th Separate Marine Brigade and the 200th
Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, respectively.
Gromov added that Russian forces are training
servicemen in Krasnodar Krai to replenish units of the 49th Combined Arms Army and are trying to
restore combat power of Russian units withdrawn from the battlefront in occupied Crimea.
Unknown Russian perpetrators conducted a series of Molotov cocktail attacks on
Russian military commissariats throughout the country in May, likely in protest of
covert mobilization. Russian media and local Telegram channels reported deliberate acts of arson
against military commissariats in three Moscow Oblast settlements—Omsk, Volgograd, Ryazan Oblast,
and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District—between May 4 and May 18.
Ukrainian General Staff Main
Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov said that there were at least 12 cases of deliberate arson
against military commissariats in total and five last week.
Russian officials caught two 16-year-olds in
the act in one Moscow Oblast settlement, which suggests that Russian citizens are likely responsible for
the attacks on military commissariats.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces are intensifying operations to advance north and west of Popasna
in preparation for an offensive toward Severodonetsk.
Russian and proxy authorities in Mariupol are struggling to establish coherent
administrative control of the city.
Russian forces reportedly attempted to regain control of the settlements they lost
during the Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City.
Russian forces are bolstering their naval presence around Snake Island to fortify
their grouping on the island.
