1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 202
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18
Kateryna Stepanenko and Karolina Hird
May 18, 6:15 pm ET
Russian occupation authorities announced plans to destroy the Azovstal Steel Plant and
turn Mariupol into a resort city, depriving Russia of some of the most important
economic benefits it hoped to reap by taking the city in the first place. Head of the Donetsk
People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin stated that DNR authorities are planning to level Azovstal after
completing its capture.
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Azovstal was a major element of Mariupol’s economy before the war because
of its unique function as a full-cycle metallurgical complex, the 10,000 jobs associated with production
at the plant, the billions of dollars of foreign exchange earnings and taxes it generated, and its
production output of 7,000 tons of steel, 6 million tons of iron, and 4.5 million tons of rolled metal,
according to the Mariupol City Council.
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Pushilin stated that the DNR intends to rebuild Mariupol to
be a “resort city,” while admitting that 60% of the structures in Mariupol have been destroyed to the
point where they cannot be rebuilt.
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The announced plan to turn Mariupol into a center of tourism and
leisure following the complete destruction of a major center of economic activity in Mariupol, is
indicative of the damage that Russian troops have inflicted on themselves through the destruction of
Mariupol. Russia does not need another resort town on the Black Sea. It does need the kind of hard
currency that a plant like Azovstal had generated. This announcement epitomizes the kind of Pyrrhic
victories Russian forces have won in Ukraine, to the extent that they have won victories at all.
The Kremlin may hope to offset the loss of revenues from Azovstal and other destroyed
infrastructure in Ukraine by profiting from the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant that is
forces have seized. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin announced that he will
allocate maximum integration assistance for Zaporizhia Oblast to work in a “friendly Russian family”
during his visit to Melitopol on May 18.
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Khusnullin added that the Zaporihia Nuclear Power Plant will
exclusively work for Russia and will sell electricity to Ukraine. This statement is a clear Russian
recognition that there will be an independent Ukraine at the end of this war and that Russia seeks to
restore its energy leverage over Ukraine and possibly the West more broadly that has been reduced by
sanctions and efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy. It also reinforces the urgency of helping
Ukraine regain control of Enerhodar City and the rest of its occupied territory to forestall this renewed
economic thralldom. ISW previously reported that Russian forces started digging trenches and blocking
highways to Enerhodar City.
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The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian
occupation authorities continued to prepare for a referendum in Enerhodar City on May 18.
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Ukrainian officials reported protests in Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR
and LNR) over forced mobilizations on May 16-17. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence
Directorate (GUR) reported that relatives of the forcefully mobilized LNR servicemen demanded an
immediate return of their family members from combat in Luhansk City and Rovenky approximately
50 kilometers west of Russian border.
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The GUR noted that perceptions of war and resentment of
mobilization in LNR worsened because of the high casualties Russian forces have suffered and the fact
that Russian authorities are reportedly evading payments to the families of wounded and killed
servicemen. Mariupol Mayor’s Advisor Petro Andryushenko had previously reported that a protest
against mobilization had occurred in Donetsk City on May 16.
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