1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 202
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan
May 16, 6:00 pm ET
Russian forces conducted limited and largely unsuccessful ground offensives along the
front line in Ukraine on May 16. The Russian grouping around Kharkiv City is notably trying to
hold the border and prevent Ukrainian troops from advancing further north. This activity is different
from previous Russian withdrawals from around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy earlier in the war when the
Russians pulled completely back to Russian territory. Russian troops may seek to retain positions in
Ukraine and continue artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in order to prevent Ukrainian forces from
getting into tube or rocket-artillery range of the outskirts of Belgorod, a major city in Russia and a key
hub of the Russian military effort. The Russians might alternatively hope to conduct a counter-counter-
offensive to push back south toward Kharkiv, although such an effort is highly unlikely to succeed.
Russian military bloggers continued to post analysis that is skeptical of Russian efforts
and increasingly in-line with Western assessments of Russian military failures in
Ukraine. One such blogger, Igor Strelkov, claimed that the Russian offensive to take Donbas has
ultimately failed and that “not a single large settlement “has been liberated.
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Strelkov even noted that
the capture of Rubizhne is relatively insignificant because it happened before the new offensive in
Donbas had begun. Strelkov stated that Russian forces are unlikely to liberate Donbas by the summer
and that Ukrainian troops will hold their positions around Donetsk City. Strelkov notably claimed that
Russian failures thus far have not surprised him because the intent of Russian command has been so
evident throughout the operation that Ukrainian troops are aware of exactly how to best respond and
warns that Russian troops are fighting to the point of exhaustion under “rules proposed by the enemy.”
The continued disenchantment of pro-Russian milbloggers with the Russian war effort may fuel
dissatisfaction in Russia itself, especially if Moscow continues to press recruitment and conscription
efforts that send poorly-trained cannon-fodder to the front lines.
Over 260 Mariupol defenders evacuated from the Azovstal Steel Plant to Russian
occupied settlements in Donetsk Oblast on May 16.
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Ukrainian and Russian authorities
negotiated evacuation for wounded Ukrainian servicemen via humanitarian corridors. Ukrainian
officials previously called for the evacuation of 60 medics and critically wounded servicemen on May
13.
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The Kremlin may extend humanitarian corridors for remaining Ukrainian defenders in an effort to
fully control Mariupol.
Frictions between Russian occupation administrations and pro-Russian collaborators is
growing in occupied areas of Ukraine. The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported
that Russian forces are having serious conflicts with collaborators due to interpersonal power conflicts.
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A well-known collaborator in Zaporizhia accused the Russian-installed governor of the area of stealing
his 10,000 ruble compensation. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryshchenko additionally
claimed that relatives of those mobilized into the forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) are
holding a mass protest against mobilization in Donetsk City. While ISW cannot independently verify
these claims, such discontent amongst occupation elements suggests a general lack of planning by
Russian authorities in occupied areas, now compounded by increasingly evident Russian losses.
