1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Frederick W. Kagan, and George Barros
May 17, 7:00 pm ET
Mariupol defenders trapped in the Azovstal Steel Plant likely surrendered after
Ukrainian officials negotiated evacuation measures with the Kremlin. Russian forces began
evacuating wounded Ukrainian forces to Russian-occupied settlements in Donetsk Oblast on May 16
after the Russian Defense Ministry proposed the agreement earlier in the day. Ukrainian officials said
that they will seek to return the Mariupol defenders to Ukraine in a prisoner exchange and continue to
undertake appropriate measures to rescue all Ukrainian servicemen from Azovstal.
The Kremlin might have agreed to the conditional surrender of the Azovstal defenders
to accelerate Russia’s ability to declare Mariupol fully under its control. The Ukrainian
Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Russian Defense Ministry’s Department of
Information and Mass Communications is hastily preparing a press tour of foreign journalists through
occupied territories of Ukraine between May 18 and May 21.
The Kremlin also could have agreed to
such a deal to secure a victory in order to deflect criticism on social media of the failed Russian Siverskyi
Donets River crossings and the overall slow pace of the invasion.
The Kremlin might refuse to exchange the Mariupol defenders. Some Russian State Duma
members are petitioning to pass laws that would prohibit prisoner exchanges for individuals accused
of “Nazism.”
Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin claimed that the Mariupol defenders
must be charged with war crimes and cannot be exchanged for Russian prisoners of war.
The Kremlin
may ignore the Russian State Duma’s concerns or use them to sabotage negotiations with Ukraine.
The surrender agreement generated some outrage and confusion on pro-Russian social
media, rather than the celebration of the full capitulation of Mariupol that the Kremlin
likely expected—possibly undermining Russian information operations. Some Russian
Telegram channels ridiculed the Russian Defense Ministry for negotiating with Ukrainian “terrorists”
and “Nazis.”
Some bloggers criticized the Donetsk People’s Republic for organizing the evacuation
proceedings and blamed negotiating authorities for creating conditions for Ukrainian martyrdom.
Several Russian bloggers also called for the imprisonment or murder of surrendered Ukrainian
servicemen.
Russian audiences are likely dissatisfied with the surrender agreement because they
expected Russian forces to destroy Ukrainian defenders at Azovstal. The Kremlin has created large
amounts of propaganda that portrayed successful Russian assaults on Azovstal without clearly setting
conditions for surrender negotiations. Some Russians may find it difficult to reconcile the triumphant
messaging with the abrupt negotiations leading to a negotiated surrender.
Russian forces have intensified artillery fire on Ukrainian border settlements in
Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts over the past few weeks. The Ukrainian Northern Operational
Command reported that Russian forces shelled the border between Sumy Oblast and Russia over 70
times on May 17.
Sumy Oblast Administration Head Dmytro Zhyvytskyi said that Russian saboteurs
unsuccessfully attempted to break through the Ukrainian border on May 17.
Key Takeaways
• The Ukrainian military command ordered the remaining defenders of Azovstal to
surrender, likely conditionally, in hopes of returning them to Ukraine as part of
yet-to-be-negotiated prisoner exchanges.
