1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Frederick W. Kagan, and George Barros
May 15, 6:30 pm ET
Russian forces have likely abandoned the objective of completing a large-scale
encirclement of Ukrainian units from Donetsk City to Izyum in favor of completing the
seizure of Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai said that the
Russian military command likely understands that it will not be able to seize Donetsk Oblast but
believes that it has the capacity to reach the administrative borders of Luhansk Oblast.
His
observations are generally consistent with our analysis. The Russian military command will likely
prioritize the Battle of Severodonetsk going forward, with some efforts dedicated to disrupting
Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in eastern Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are
continuing a coordinated effort to seize Severodonetsk from the north and the south, which would result
in a shallower encirclement of Ukrainian troops than originally expected. The failed Russian attempts
to cross the Siverskyi Donets River near Kreminna may shift Russian encirclement operations further
east, closer to Severodonetsk via Rubizhne, rather than conducting a wider encirclement along multiple
axes. Russian forces have also likely been scaling down advances to Slovyansk from Izyum, possibly due
to the slow pace of the offensive operation there.
Russian forces have likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian
military command to amalgamate soldiers from many different elements, including
private military companies and proxy militias, into ostensibly regular army units and
naval infantry. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that approximately 2,500 Russian reservists
are training in Belgorod, Voronezh, and Rostov oblasts to reinforce Russian offensive operations in
Ukraine. That number of reservists is unlikely to generate enough force to replenish Russian units that
have reportedly lost up to 20 percent of staffing in some areas—to say nothing of the battalion tactical
group that was largely destroyed recently while attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets River.
The
Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate stated that Russian forces are conducting covert
mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who likely have insufficient
training to be effective and little motivation to fight.
Russian forces also deployed new conscripts from
occupied settlements in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to maintain an offensive around Kharkiv City,
likely due to the lack of Russian reserves.
Russian private military companies are reportedly forming combined units with airborne elements due
to significant losses in manpower.
Denaturing elite airborne units with mercenaries is shocking, and
would be the clearest indication yet that Russia has exhausted its available combat-ready manpower
reserves. The Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade is reportedly receiving personnel from
other Black Sea Fleet units, including navy ship crewmembers.
Newly formed or regrouped units are
unlikely to be effective in combat.
Russian forces are likely fortifying occupied settlements in southern Ukraine, indicating
that the Russians are seeking to establish permanent control in the region. Ukrainian
officials reported that Russian forces began digging trenches and building concrete revetments in
unspecified areas of Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblast, near Melitopol, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces will likely prioritize winning the Battle of Severodonetsk over
reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast.
