1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan
May 12, 6:45 pm ET
Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops
along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of
Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Russian forces likely control almost all of Rubizhne as of May 12
and have likely seized the town of Voevodivka, north of Severdonetsk.
They will likely launch a ground
offensive on or around Severodonetsk in the coming days. The relative success of Russian operations
in this area combined with their failure to advance from Izyum and the notable decline in the energy of
that attempted advance suggest that they may be giving up on the Izyum axis. Reports that Russian
forces in Popasna are advancing north, toward Severodonetsk-Lysychansk, rather than east toward the
Slovyansk-Debaltseve highway, support this hypothesis.
It is unclear if Russian forces can encircle, let alone capture, Severodonetsk and
Lysychansk even if they focus their efforts on that much-reduced objective. Russian
offensives have bogged down every time they hit a built-up area throughout this war, and these areas
are unlikely to be different. Continued and expanding reports of demoralization and refusals to fight
among Russian units suggest that the effective combat power of Russian troops in the east continues to
be low and may drop further. If the Russians abandon efforts to advance from Izyum, moreover,
Ukrainian forces would be able to concentrate their efforts on defending Severodonetsk-Lysychansk or,
in the worst case, breaking a Russian encirclement before those settlements fall.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv is also forcing the Russian command to
make hard choices, as it was likely intended to do. The UK Ministry of Defense reports that
Russian forces pulled back from Kharkiv have been sent toward Rubizhne and Severodonetsk but at the
cost of ceding ground in Kharkiv from which the Russians had been shelling the city.
The
counteroffensive is also forcing Russian units still near the city to focus their bombardment on the
attacking Ukrainian troops rather than continuing their attacks on the city itself. The Ukrainian
counteroffensive near Kharkiv is starting to look very similar to the counteroffensive that ultimately
drove Russian troops away from Kyiv and out of western Ukraine entirely, although it is too soon to tell
if the Russians will make a similar decision here.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces made marginal gains to the north of Severodonetsk and have likely
captured Rubizhne and Voevodivka.
• Russian forces fired intensively on Ukrainian positions in northern Kharkiv to
stop the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv City. The artillery
focus on Ukrainian positions has likely diverted the Russian artillery that remains
in range of Kharkiv to the more urgent task of stopping the Ukrainian advance.
• Russian forces are strengthening their position on Snake Island in an effort to
block Ukrainian maritime communications and capabilities in the northwestern
Black Sea on the approaches to Odesa.
