1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko and Frederick W. Kagan
May 13, 7:00 pm ET
The Russian military has likely decided to withdraw fully from its positions around
Kharkiv City in the face of Ukrainian counteroffensives and the limited availability of
reinforcements. Russian units have generally not attempted to hold ground against counterattacking
Ukrainian forces over the past several days, with a few exceptions. Reports from Western officials and
a video from an officer of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) indicate that Moscow is focused on
conducting an orderly withdrawal and prioritizing getting Russians back home before allowing proxy
forces to enter Russia rather than trying to hold its positions near the city.
Ukraine thus appears to have won the Battle of Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces prevented
Russian troops from encircling, let alone seizing Kharkiv, and then expelled them from
around the city, as they did to Russian forces attempting to seize Kyiv. Ukrainian forces will
likely attempt to disrupt at least the westernmost of the ground lines of communication (GLOCs)
between Belgorod and Russian forces concentrated around Izyum, although Russia is using several
GLOCs, including some further away from current Ukrainian positions than any Ukrainian
counteroffensive is likely to reach soon. The terrain east of current Ukrainian positions may also favor
the Russians attempting to defend their GLOCs, as large water features canalize movement and create
chokepoints that the Ukrainians would have to breakthrough.
Russian troops continued efforts to advance all along the periphery of the Izyum-
Donetsk city salient but made little progress. Russian forces attempted a ground offensive from
Izyum that made no progress. We had previously hypothesized that Russia might give up on attempts
to advance from Izyum, but the Russians have either not made such a decision or have not fully
committed to it yet.
Small-scale and unsuccessful attacks on the southern end of the salient near
Donetsk City continued but made no real progress.
The main Russian effort continues to be the attempt to encircle Severodonetsk and
Lysychansk from the north and from the south. Russian troops attacking from Popasna to the
north made no significant progress in the last 24 hours. Russian forces coming north-to-south have
failed to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and taken devastating losses in their attempts. The Russians
may not have enough additional fresh combat power to offset those losses and continue the offensive
on a large enough scale to complete the encirclement, although they will likely continue to try to do so.
The Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol continue to fight despite the odds, although
Russian attackers appear to have penetrated into the Azovstal facility.
Key Takeaways
• Ukraine has likely won the Battle of Kharkiv. Russian forces continued to withdraw
from the northern settlements around Kharkiv City. Ukrainian forces will likely
attempt to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication to Izyum.
• Ukrainian forces have likely disrupted the Russian attempt to cross the Siverskyi
Donets River in force, undermining Russian efforts to mass troops in northern
Donbas and complete the encirclement of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
• Russian forces have likely secured the highway near the western entrance to the
Azovstal Steel Plant but fighting for the facility continues.
