1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9
Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Mason Clark
May 9, 7:15pm ET
Russian forces continue to face widespread force generation challenges. A senior US
defense official stated on May 9 that the US has not observed any indicators of a “new major Russian
mobilization” and that members of the private military company Wagner Group “urgently” requested
hundreds of thousands of additional troops to reinforce Russian efforts in Donbas.
1
The official noted
that Russia currently has 97 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in Ukraine, but that BTGs have been
moving in and out of Ukraine to refit and resupply, suggesting that Russian troops continue to sustain
substantial damage in combat.
2
ISW has previously assessed that most Russian BTGs are heavily
degraded and counting BTGs is not a useful metric of Russian combat power.
3
The Main Ukrainian
Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed that under-trained, ill-equipped Russian conscripts are still
being sent into active combat despite the Kremlin denying this practice.
4
A prisoner of war from the
BARS-7 detachment of the Wagner Group claimed that a ”covert mobilization” is underway in Russian
to send conscripts to clean damage caused by combat in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk
People’s Republics.
5
Russian troops in Ukraine continue to display low morale and poor discipline as fighting
in many areas has stalled out against Ukrainian resistance. A senior US defense official
claimed that Russian troops in Donbas are failing to obey orders from top generals.
6
Russian forces
deployed to the Zaporizhzhia area reportedly are experiencing very low morale and psychological
conditions, complain about the ineffectiveness of operations in the area, frequently abuse alcohol, and
shoot at their own vehicles in order to avoid going to the frontline.
7
This is consistent with reports made
by the Ukrainian General Staff that the extent of Russian losses is having widespread impacts on the
willingness of Russian troops to engage in offensive operations.
8
Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to integrate occupied Ukrainian
territories directly into Russia, as opposed to creating proxy “People’s Republics.” The
Kherson occupation Deputy Chairman of Military Civil Administration Kirill Stremousov stated on May
9 that the Kherson region intends to become part of Russia and that Kherson authorities do not intend
to hold a referendum to create an independent republic.
9
Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Defense
Ministry Oleksandr Motuzyanyk reported that Russian occupation authorities are intensifying
reconnaissance measures and increasing checkpoints and patrols in occupied areas in order to prepare
to integrate these regions directly into Russia.
10
Motuzyanyk noted that Russian and Crimean groups
have been arriving to occupied regions to intensify propaganda measures to prepare for integration.
ISW will publish our assessment of the Kremlin’s most likely course of actions towards their occupied
territories in Ukraine in the coming days.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances to the southeast or southwest
of Izyum on May 9 but are likely attempting to concentrate the forces necessary to
resume offensive operations in the coming days.
