1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, Karolina Hird, and Kateryna Stepanenko
May 7, 6:45 pm ET
The Ukrainian counteroffensive northeast of Kharkiv is making significant progress and
will likely advance to the Russian border in the coming days or weeks. Russian forces may
be conducting a limited withdrawal in the face of successful Ukrainian attacks and reportedly destroyed
three bridges to slow the Ukrainian advance. Armies generally only destroy bridges if they have largely
decided they will not attempt to cross the river in the other direction anytime soon; Russian forces are
therefore unlikely to launch operations to retake the northeast outskirts of Kharkiv liberated by
Ukrainian forces in the near future. Russian forces previously destroyed several bridges during their
retreat from Chernihiv Oblast—as did Ukrainian forces withdrawing in the face of the Russian offensive
in the initial days of the war.
This Ukrainian offensive is likely intended to push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv city
and drive to the border of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. As ISW previously forecasted, the Ukrainian
counteroffensive is forcing Russian units intended for deployment elsewhere to redeploy to the Kharkiv
front to halt Ukrainian attacks. Given the current rate of Ukrainian advances, Russian forces may be
unable to prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border, even with additional
reinforcements. Ukrainian forces are not directly threatening Russian lines of communication to Izyum
(and ISW cannot verify claims of a separate Ukrainian counteroffensive toward Izyum at this time), but
the Ukrainian counteroffensive demonstrates promising Ukrainian capabilities and may set conditions
for further offensive operations into northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.
By all indications, Russian forces will announce the creation of a Kherson People’s
Republic or possibly forcibly annex Kherson Oblast in the near future and are
intensifying occupation measures in Mariupol. Russian forces are reportedly increasing their
security presence in both Kherson and Mariupol, including withdrawing personnel from frontline
combat units to protect Russian dignitaries in Mariupol. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Leader
Denis Pushilin arrived in Kherson on May 6, and local occupation officials stated the region will “strive
to become a subject of Russia” and “will resemble something close to Crimea in terms of the pace of
development,” echoing longstanding rhetoric used by Russia’s existing proxies in eastern Ukraine. As
ISW has previously assessed, the Kremlin will likely form illegal proxy republics or directly annex
occupied areas of southern and eastern Ukraine to cement its occupation administration and attempt
to permanently strip these territories from Ukraine.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces destroyed several bridges to slow Ukrainian forces and may be
conducting a limited withdrawal northeast of Kharkiv city in the face of the
successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• Ukrainian forces are making significant progress around Kharkiv and will likely
advance to the Russian border in the coming days.
• Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian advances toward Barvinvoke and
Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to drive directly southeast toward
Slovyansk. ISW cannot confirm claims of a Ukrainian counteroffensive toward
Izyum at this time.
• Russian forces claimed to capture Popasna on May 7 but remain largely stalled in
eastern Ukraine.
