1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark and George Barros
May 6, 5:00 pm ET
The Ukrainian counteroffensive north and east of Kharkiv city secured further gains in
the last 24 hours and may successfully push Russian forces out of artillery range of
Kharkiv in the coming days. Ukrainian forces captured several settlements north and east of
Kharkiv in the last 24 hours, reducing the ability of Russian forces to threaten Ukraine’s second-largest
city. This Ukrainian operation is developing into a successful, broader counteroffensive—as opposed to
the more localized counterattacks that Ukrainian forces have conducted throughout the war to secure
key terrain and disrupt Russian offensive operations. Ukrainian forces are notably retaking territory
along a broad arc around Kharkiv rather than focusing on a narrow thrust, indicating an ability to
launch larger-scale offensive operations than we have observed so far in the war (as Ukrainian forces
predominantly retook the outskirts of Kyiv following Russian withdrawals rather than in a major
counteroffensive). The willingness of Ukrainian forces to concentrate the forces necessary for this scale
of offensive operations, rather than deploying these available forces to defenses in eastern Ukraine,
additionally indicates the Ukrainian military’s confidence in repelling ongoing Russian operations to
encircle Ukrainian forces in the Severodonetsk area. While Ukrainian forces are unlikely to directly
threaten Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum (as they run further to the east of
recent Ukrainian advances), Ukrainian forces may be able to relieve Russian pressure on Kharkiv and
possibly threaten to make further advances to the Russian border.
ISW cannot confirm initial reports of a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile strike on the
Russian frigate Admiral Makarov on May 6.
ISW
will update this assessment with further information as it becomes available.
Key Takeaways
• The Ukrainian counteroffensive along a broad arc north and east of Kharkiv city
took further terrain and will likely push Russian forces out of tube artillery range
of the city in the coming days. The ability—and willingness—of the Ukrainian
military to concentrate the forces in Kharkiv necessary to conduct this operation
indicates Ukrainian confidence in repelling ongoing Russian attacks with their
existing forces in the region.
• Russian forces did not make any progress on the Izyum axis.
• Russian forces likely secured small gains on the outskirts of Severodonetsk in the
last 24 hours but are unlikely to successfully surround the town.
• Russian forces continued assaults on the Azovstal plant, but ISW cannot confirm
any specific advances. Likely widespread civilian resistance to the Russian
occupation may additionally be disrupting previously announced Russian plans to
conduct a Victory Day exhibition in Mariupol.
• There were no significant changes on the southern axis in the last 24 hours and
Russian forces continued to reinforce their forward positions.
• ISW cannot confirm reports of a Ukrainian anti-ship missile strike on the Admiral
Makarov at this time.
