1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4
Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, and Mason Clark
May 4, 7:15pm ET
Ukrainian defenses have largely stalled Russian advances in Eastern Ukraine. Russian troops
conducted a number of unsuccessful attacks in Eastern Ukraine on May 4 and were unable to make any
confirmed advances. Russian forces attacking south of Izyum appear increasingly unlikely to successfully encircle
Ukrainian forces in the Rubizhne area. Ukrainian forces have so far prevented Russian forces from merging their
offensives to the southeast of Izyum and the west of Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk, as Russian forces likely
intended.
Russian forces reportedly entered the Azovstal Steel Plant – rather than its outskirts – for the
first time on May 4. The extent of this Russian advance remains unclear, and Russian forces likely face further
costly fighting if they intend to clear the entire facility. The Kremlin likely hopes that the successful capture of
Azovstal through a ground assault will cement the Kremlin’s growing effort to claim complete control of Mariupol
by May 9, with Russian propagandists recently arriving in the city to set conditions for further claims of a Russian
victory. The Kremlin likely intends to claim some sort of victory in Mariupol to present a success to the Russian
people, though Russian forces are highly unlikely to halt offensive operations across Ukraine on this date.
Russian forces intensified airstrikes against transportation infrastructure in Western Ukraine
on May 4 but remain unable to interdict Western aid shipments to Ukraine. Six Russian cruise
missiles hit electrical substations near railway stations in Lviv and Transcarpathia (the southwestern Oblast of
Ukraine) on May 4.
1
A senior US defense official reported that Russian aircraft conducted 200 to 300 airstrikes
largely targeting transportation infrastructure in the last 24 hours.
2
The US official added that these Russian
strikes are likely intended disrupt Ukrainian transportation capabilities and slow down weapon re-supply efforts
but have been unable to do so.
3
Key Takeaways
Russian forces engaged in several unsuccessful ground offensives to the south of Izyum
and did not significantly advance efforts to encircle Ukrainian troops in the cauldron to
the southeast of Izyum and west of the Donetsk-Luhansk frontline.
Russian forces reportedly stormed the Azovstal Steel Plant on May 4 and are likely
operating inside the plant’s facilities.
Russian and Ukrainian sources confirmed that a Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed
Russian troops back 40 kilometers from Kharkiv City.
Russian forces conducted a number of unsuccessful counteroffensives on the southern
axis.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in
Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and
forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities
on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban
areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva
Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
