俄罗斯进攻性战役评估,2022年5月5日

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时间:2023-06-20

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1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, and George Barros
May 5, 7:00 pm ET
The Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv city may disrupt Russian forces
northeast of Kharkiv and will likely force Russian forces to decide whether to reinforce
positions near Kharkiv or risk losing most or all of their positions within artillery range
of the city. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zalyzhnyi stated on May 5 that Ukrainian forces
are transitioning to counteroffensive operations around Kharkiv and Izyum, the first direct Ukrainian
military statement of a shift to offensive operations. Ukrainian forces did not make any confirmed
advances in the last 24 hours but repelled Russian attempts to regain lost positions. Russian forces
made few advances in continued attacks in eastern Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces may be able to build
their ongoing counterattacks and successful repulse of Russian attacks along the Izyum axis into a wider
counteroffensive to retake Russian-occupied territory in Kharkiv Oblast.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces continued ineffectual offensive operations in southern Kharkiv,
Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts without securing any significant territorial gains in
the past 24 hours.
Ukrainian officials and military officers confirmed that Russian forces have
breached the Azovstal facility itself and confirmed that Ukrainian forces are losing
ground. Russian forces will likely capture the facility in the coming days.
Ukrainian offensive operations around Kharkiv likely intend to push Russian
forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv city, force Russian units to redeploy from
the Izyum axis, and potentially threaten Russian lines of communication.
Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations toward Zaporizhia City but
did not conduct any attacks in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts in the last 24 hours.
Ukrainian forces claimed to recapture additional territory west of Kherson, but
ISW cannot independently confirm any advances.
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