1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, and George Barros
April 29, 6:15pm ET
Russian forces made limited advances west of Severodonetsk on April 29 but remain
stalled south of Izyum. Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine are likely successfully conducting a
maneuver defense rather than holding static positions, redeploying mechanized reserves to resist
attempted Russian advances. Concentrated Russian artillery is enabling minor Russian advances, but
Ukrainian positions remain strong. Limited Ukrainian counterattacks around Kharkiv city may
additionally force Russian forces to redeploy units intended for the Izyum axis to hold these positions.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces likely intend to leave a minimal force in Mariupol necessary to block
Ukrainian positions in Azovstal and prevent partisan actions and are deploying as
much combat power as possible to support offensive operations elsewhere.
• Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine,
which secured only minor advances west of Severodonetsk and did not advance on
the Izyum front in the last 24 hours.
• Ukrainian counterattacks in Kharkiv are unlikely to develop into a major
counteroffensive in the coming days but may force Russia to redeploy forces
intended for the Izyum axis to hold their defensive positions around the city.
• Ukrainian intelligence continued to warn that Russian false flag attacks in
Transnistria are intended to draw Transnistria into the war in some capacity and
coerce Moldova to abandon pro-European policies.
