1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
May 1, 6:15 ET
Russian forces are setting conditions to establish permanent control over the areas of
southern Ukraine they currently occupy, either as nominally independent “People’s
Republics” or by annexing them to Russia. Russian sources reported that stores in occupied
Melitopol and Volnovakha are beginning to transition to using the Russian ruble.
British Defense
Intelligence reported that the ruble will be used in Kherson City starting on May 1 as part of a 4-month
currency transition scheme enacted by the occupation administration.
These measures, which are not
necessary or normal in military occupation administrations, indicate that Russian President Vladimir
Putin likely intends to retain control over these areas and that his ambitions are not confined to Donbas.
Western and Ukrainian sources claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin may
announce a “general mobilization” of the Russian military on May 9th. British Defense
Minister Ben Wallace claimed that Putin may make this announcement, although Wallace admitted
this was a personal opinion and not based on intelligence.
Advisor to the Ukrainian President Mikhail
Podolyak amplified Wallace’s claims and stated that a general mobilization on May 9 would be
consistent with the economic imperatives faced by Russia as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.
ISW
has no independent verification of these claims, which would not in any event generate large numbers
of usable soldiers for many months.
The Kremlin likely seeks to leverage its partners in the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) to evade Western sanctions. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence
Directorate (GUR) reported that Russia is courting CSTO members to procure input goods and
materials for dual-use technologies that Russia cannot directly purchase due to Western sanctions.
The GUR stated that this effort will increase CSTO members’ economic dependence on Russia and
enable Russian sanction evasion by using third-party countries to re-export Russian products to
international markets.
The GUR stated that the Russian Ulyanovsk Mechanical Plant is attempting to
obtain German components needed for the production of Buk surface-to-air missile systems and
Tunguska missiles via Kazakhstan. Western sanctions may need to target Russia’s partners in the CSTO
and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) customs union to prevent Russian sanctions evasion.
Key Takeaways
• Russian occupying forces are setting conditions to allow Russia to permanently
govern occupied areas in southern Ukraine, not just in Donbas.
• Ukrainian forces likely conducted a rocket artillery strike on a Russian command
post in Izyum on April 30 that struck after Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov
had left but killed other senior Russian officers.
• Russian forces continue to make incremental advances moving southwestward in
the direction of Lyman but are largely stalled against Ukrainian positions on the
pre-February 24 frontline.
• Russian forces continued re-grouping and reconnaissance on the Southern Axis
and did not make any confirmed advances.
