1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, Karolina Hird, and George Barros
April 30, 5:15pm ET
Further Russian reinforcements to the Izyum axis are unlikely to enable stalled Russian
forces to achieve substantial advances. Elements of unspecified Eastern Military District units
and several air-defense assets are reportedly deploying from Belgorod to the Izyum front to support
likely degraded Russian units attempting to advance south of the city. These forces are unlikely to
enable Russian forces to break the current deadlock, as Russian attacks remain confined to two major
highways (toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove) and cannot leverage greater numbers. Several successful
Ukrainian counterattacks out of Kharkiv city in the last 72 hours have additionally recaptured a ring of
suburbs north and east of the city and may additionally force Russian forces to redeploy units intended
for the Izyum axis to hold these positions. Russian forces appear increasingly unlikely to achieve any
major advances in eastern Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces may be able to conduct wider counterattacks
in the coming days.
Key Takeaways
• A Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv City will likely alleviate pressure on
parts of the city that have suffered the most from Russian shelling and may force
Russian troops from Izyum to re-deploy northward to support forces maintaining
the partial encirclement of Kharkiv.
• Additional Russian forces are deploying to the Izyum front but are unlikely to
enable any major advances.
• Russian troops did not make any confirmed advances to the southwest or
southeast of Izyum or to the west of the Donetsk-Luhansk frontline.
• Russian forces in Kherson are pausing major offensive operations to improve their
tactical positions and regroup to prepare for a renewed offensive to capture the
administrative borders of Kherson.
• Russian occupation forces in Mariupol announced plans to consolidate their
control over the city and intend to return Ukrainian citizens forcibly deported into
Russia at some point in the future.
