1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Karolina Hird
April 25, 5:00 pm ET
Russian forces conducted precision missile strikes against five Ukrainian railway
stations in central and western Ukraine on April 25 in a likely effort to disrupt Ukrainian
reinforcements to eastern Ukraine and Western aid shipments. A series of likely coordinated
Russian missile strikes conducted within an hour of one another early on April 25 hit critical
transportation infrastructure in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and Zhytomyr oblasts.
Russian forces seek to disrupt Ukrainian reinforcements and logistics. The Kremlin may have
additionally conducted this series of strikes—an abnormal number of precision missile strikes for one
day—to demonstrate Russia’s ability to hit targets in Western Ukraine and to disrupt western aid
shipments after US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s
surprise visit to Kyiv over the weekend. However, Russian precision strike capabilities will remain
limited and unlikely to decisively affect the course of the war; open-source research organization
Bellingcat reported on April 24 that Russia has likely used 70% of its total stockpile of precision missiles
to date.
Local Ukrainian counterattacks retook territory north of Kherson and west of Izyum in
the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to make little progress in scattered, small-
scale attacks in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are successfully halting Russian efforts to
bypass Ukrainian defensive positions around Izyum, and Russian forces are struggling to complete even
tactical encirclements. Local Ukrainian counterattacks in Kherson Oblast are unlikely to develop into a
larger counteroffensive in the near term but are disrupting Russian efforts to completely capture
Kherson Oblast and are likely acting as a drain on Russian combat power that could otherwise support
Russia’s main effort in eastern Ukraine.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces resumed ground attacks against Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant in
the last 24 hours. Russian officers may assess they will be unable to starve out the
remaining defenders by May 9 (a possible self-imposed deadline to complete the
capture of Mariupol). Russian forces will likely take high casualties if they resume
major ground assaults to clear the facility.
• Russian forces are accelerating efforts to secure occupied Mariupol but will likely
face widespread Ukrainian resistance.
• Continued Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine took little to no additional territory
in the past 24 hours.
• Prudent tactical Ukrainian counterattacks around Izyum are likely impeding
Russian efforts to complete even tactical encirclements of Ukrainian forces.
• Russian forces are preparing for renewed attacks to capture the entirety of
Kherson Oblast in southern Ukraine after minor losses in the past 48 hours.
• Russian forces likely conducted a false flag attack in Transnistria (Russia’s illegally
occupied territory in Moldova) to amplify Russian claims of anti-Russian
sentiment in Moldova, but Transnistrian forces remain unlikely to enter the war
in Ukraine.
