1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Frederick W. Kagan, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Karolina Hird
April 19, 5:30 pm ET
Russian and Ukrainian officials announced that the next phase of the Russian invasion
of Ukraine began on April 19. Russian forces conducted intensive artillery and air
bombardments of many areas along the front line from around Izyum to Mykolaiv but
relatively few ground offensive operations. Russian forces continue to receive personnel and
equipment reinforcements as well as command-and-control and logistics capabilities even as they
conduct air and artillery preparations and some mechanized advances.
The Russians have not fully set conditions for a large-scale offensive operation. The
Russians have not had enough time to reconstitute forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv and ready
them properly for a new offensive in the east. The Russians appear to be still building logistics and
command-and-control capabilities even as they start the next round of major fighting. The tempo of
Russian operations continues to suggest that President Vladimir Putin is demanding a hasty offensive
to achieve his stated objectives, possibly by “Victory Day” on May 9. The haste and partial preparation
of the Russian attack will likely undermine its effectiveness and may compromise its success.
Russian forces appear to be attempting to conduct a wide encirclement of Ukrainian
troops along axes from Izyum to the southeast and from Donetsk City to the north even
as they push west from Popasna and positions north of Severodonetsk. Russian ground
offensives in the last 24 hours occurred around Izyum, Kreminna (north of Severodonetsk), and from
Donetsk City toward Avdiivka. Only the advance to and possibly through Kreminna made significant
progress. An encirclement on this scale would likely take considerable time to complete against
Ukrainian resistance. Even if the Russians did complete such an encirclement and trapped a large
concentration of Ukrainian forces inside one or more pockets, the Ukrainian defenders would likely be
able to hold out for a considerable period and might well be able to break out.
The Russians may alternatively try to complete several smaller encirclements
simultaneously, each trapping fewer Ukrainian forces and therefore taking less time to
complete and then reduce. Coordinating such operations is complicated and beyond the planning
and execution capacities the Russian army has demonstrated in the conflict thus far.
Ukrainian forces continue to defend parts of the Azovstal complex in Mariupol, but
Russian officials and media are gathering in and near the city, likely in preparation to
declare victory in the coming days whether or not fighting continues.
Key Takeaways
• The next phase of the Russian offensive in Ukraine’s east has reportedly begun,
largely with artillery and air bombardments supporting a few small-scale ground
offensives.
• Russian officials and media are likely preparing to declare victory in Mariupol in
the coming days, possibly before Ukrainian forces in the Azovstal facility have been
fully defeated.
• The Russians may be attempting a single wide encirclement of Ukrainian forces
from Izyum to Donetsk City or a series of smaller encirclements within that arc. It
is too soon to assess the intended Russian scheme of maneuver.
