Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 17
Mason Clark and George Barros
April 17, 3pm ET
Russian forces likely captured the Port of Mariupol on April 16 despite Ukrainian
General Staff denials, reducing organized Ukrainian resistance in the city to the
Azovstal factory in eastern Mariupol. Russian and DNR forces released footage on April 16
confirming their presence in several key locations in southwestern Mariupol, including the port
itself. Isolated groups of Ukrainian troops may remain active in Mariupol outside of the Azovstal
factory, but they will likely be cleared out by Russian forces in the coming days. Russian forces
likely seek to force the remaining defenders of the Azovstal factory to capitulate through
overwhelming firepower to avoid costly clearing operations, but remaining Ukrainian defenders
appear intent on staging a final stand. Russian forces will likely complete the capture of Mariupol
in the coming week, but final assaults will likely continue to cost them dearly.
Russian forces continued to amass on the Izyum axis and in eastern Ukraine,
increasingly including low-quality proxy conscripts, in parallel with continuous –
and unsuccessful – small-scale attacks. Russian forces did not take any territory on the
Izyum axis or in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the past 24 hours. Russian forces deploying to
eastern Ukraine reportedly continue to face significant morale and supply issues and appear
unlikely to intend, or be able to, conduct a major offensive surge in the coming days.
Deputy
Ukrainian Minister of Defense Anna Malyar stated on April 17 that the Russian military is in no
hurry to launch an offensive in eastern Ukraine, having learned from their experience from Kyiv
– but Russian forces continue localized attacks and are likely unable to amass the cohesive combat
power necessary for a major breakthrough.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces likely captured the Port of Mariupol on April 16 despite
Ukrainian General Staff denials.
Russian forces likely seek to force the remaining defenders of the Azovstal
factory to capitulate through overwhelming firepower to avoid costly clearing
operations, but remaining Ukrainian defenders appear intent on staging a
final stand.
Evgeny Prigozhin, financier of the Wagner Group, is likely active on the
ground in eastern Ukraine to coordinate Wagner Group recruitment and
funding.
Russian forces continued their build up around Izyum but did not conduct
any offensive operations.
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 16 that the
Kremlin is increasingly arresting Russian and proxy officers for failures in
Ukraine.
The GUR reported Russian military authorities established a commission intended to
run from March 2 to April 24 in occupied Horlivka to identify the reasons for personnel shortages
among Russian forces. The GUR reported that Russian investigators discovered the commanders
of Russia’s 3rd Motor Rifle Brigade was 100% staffed at the beginning of the invasion when it in
fact only had 55% of its personnel and arrested two battalion commanders in the brigade. The
GUR also reported the FSB arrested DNR Defense Spokesperson Eduard Basurin for his ”careless
statement” on April 11 revealing Russian intent to use chemical weapons in Mariupol, though
there is still no independent confirmation of the Ukrainian claim of Russian chemical weapons
use.
