1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark and Kateryna Stepanenko
April 15, 4:30pm ET
Russian forces continued small-scale, tactical attacks on the Izyum and Severodonetsk
axes; additional reinforcements to date have not enabled any breakthroughs of
Ukrainian defenses. Russian forces continue to deploy reinforcements to eastern Ukraine but show
no indication of taking an operational pause. The Russian military appears to be carrying out an
approach in eastern Ukrainian similar to its failed efforts north of Kyiv in early March—continuing to
funnel small groups of forces into unsuccessful attacks against Ukrainian defensive positions without
taking the operational pause that is likely necessary to prepare for a more successful offensive
campaign. Russian forces continue to grind down Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol, though ISW cannot
currently assess how long these forces will hold out and their current supply status.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces continued to grind down Ukrainian defenses in southwestern and
eastern Mariupol, though ISW cannot confirm any major new territorial changes
in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian defenders reported that the situation is
“deteriorating” and Russian forces are deploying additional artillery and heavy
weapons.
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful daily attacks against Rubizhne, Popasna,
and Marinka and heavy shelling along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks from Izyum toward both Slovyansk and
Barvinkove.
