1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 6
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
April 6, 5pm ET
Russian forces continued to redeploy forces to the Izyum-Slovyansk axis and eastern
Ukraine in the past 24 hours and did not secure any major advances. Russian forces
completed their withdrawal from Sumy Oblast, and Russian forces previously withdrawn from
northeastern Ukraine continued to redeploy to Belgorod, Russia, for further deployment to Izyum or
Donbas. The Ukrainian military reported that Russia plans to deploy elements from the Kyiv axis to
Izyum, but these units will not likely regain combat effectiveness for some time.
Russian forces may be preparing for a larger offensive in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
in the coming days, but are unlikely to generate the combat power necessary to break
through Ukrainian defenses in continuing frontal assaults. Ukrainian officials and pro-
Russian Telegram channels both reported additional Russian equipment arriving in Donbas from an
unspecified location in preparation for a renewed offensive. Russian forces continued assaults in
Mariupol, and we cannot confirm concrete control of terrain changes in the city. Russian forces
continued offensive operations along the Izyum-Slovyansk axis but did not make any major territorial
gains.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces with heavy air and artillery support continued assaults on
Ukrainian positions in Mariupol in the past 24 hours.
Russian and proxy forces in eastern Ukraine are likely attempting to consolidate
forces and material for an offensive in the coming days.
Russian forces continued offensive operations from Izyum towards Slovyansk but
did not make any major territorial gains.
Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks towards Kherson from both
the north and west.
Russian forces completely vacated Sumy Oblast.
Russian General Officers are reportedly instruction commanders to severely
restrict internet access among Russian personnel in an attempt to combat low
morale.
The US and NATO should take a strong stance on any Russian threat to use its
military forces in Transnistria, the illegally Russian-occupied strip of Moldova
bordering Ukraine.
Ukrainian Military Intelligence reported increasing Russian censorship in an effort to
combat growing morale problems among Russian troops. Ukraine’s GUR reported that
Russian officers are intensifying censorship of their troops and restricting access to the internet due to
low morale.
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The GUR claimed that Russian commanders complain about increasing Ukrainian
influence over the information consumed by Russian soldiers. The GUR claimed to have intercepted an
extract from an order issued by the Deputy Commander of the Western Military District for military
and political work, which blamed low Russian morale on the internet and social media. The document
reportedly instructs Russian officers to either ban or severely censor all messages received by
personnel, as well as access to the internet. Draconian measures to restrict access to information among
Russian personnel will likely further exacerbate low morale and desertion rates.
