1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Karolina Hird
April 4, 5:30 pm ET
Russian forces continue to make little to no progress in frontal assaults to capture
Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, their current main effort of the war. Russian units in Donbas
face growing morale and supply issues. Additionally, the Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol have
outperformed ISW’s previous estimates and continue to hold the city. Russian efforts to generate
replacements from reservists and feed damaged units from northeastern Ukraine into frontal assaults
in eastern Ukraine are unlikely to increase their chances of success.
However, Russian forces advancing from the Kharkiv axis are setting conditions to
resume offensive operations through the city of Slovyansk to link up with other Russian
forces in Donbas and encircle Ukrainian defenders. Russian forces captured Izyum (southeast
of Kharkiv) on April 1 and have conducted active preparations to resume offensive operations for the
past three days—stockpiling supplies, refitting damaged units, repairing the damaged bridge in Izyum,
and conducting reconnaissance in force missions toward the southeast. Russian forces will likely begin
offensive operations towards Slovyansk, 50km southeast of Izyum, in the coming days.
Efforts by Russian forces advancing from Izyum to capture Slovyansk will likely prove to
be the next pivotal battle of the war in Ukraine. Russian forces likely intend to cut off Ukrainian
forces in eastern Ukraine and will need to take Slovyansk as their minimum step to do so. If Russian
forces take Slovyansk, they will then have the option to advance directly east to link up with Russian
forces fighting in Rubizhne—a shorter drive that will not isolate many Ukrainian forces—or advance
toward Horlivka and Donetsk to attempt a wider encirclement of Ukrainian forces. Both options could
enable at least limited Russian breakthroughs in Luhansk Oblast. If Russian forces are unable to
take Slovyansk at all, Russian frontal assaults in Donbas are unlikely to independently
breakthrough Ukrainian defenses and Russia’s campaign to capture the entirety of
Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts will likely fail.
Degraded Russian forces in northeastern Ukraine continued to withdraw to Russia and
are unlikely to be effective elsewhere, despite ongoing Russian efforts to redeploy them
to eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are conducting operations to clear Russians left behind in the
withdrawal, and Russian forces are unlikely to hold any cohesive defensive positions. The Ukrainian
military reported that elements of Russian VDV (Airborne) units withdrawn from northern Kyiv flew
to Belgorod, Russia, on April 4. These units are understrength, missing equipment, and likely highly
demoralized. Russian servicemen from the Kyiv axis ordered to renter combat operations may desert
or refuse orders, which has occurred in several Russian units throughout the war—including several
units that had not yet entered combat.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces in Izyum are setting conditions to begin offensive operations
southeast toward Slovyansk in the coming days to link up with other Russian forces
in Donbas and encircle Ukrainian defenders.
• Russian forces in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts continue to make little to no
progress and face mounting casualties and declining morale. Replacements and
reinforcements from northeastern Ukraine are highly unlikely to meaningfully
change the balance of forces.
