1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Karolina Hird
April 3, 3:30 pm ET
Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv. Russian forces are completing their withdrawal, but
not in good order. Ukrainian forces are continuing to clear Kyiv Oblast of isolated
Russian troops left behind in the retreat, which some Ukrainian officials describe as “lost
orcs.” Russian forces had attempted to conduct an orderly retreat from their positions around Kyiv
with designated covering forces supported by artillery and mines to allow the main body to withdraw.
The main body of Russian troops has withdrawn from the west bank of the Dnipro and is completing
its withdrawal from the east bank, but the retrograde has been sufficiently disorderly that some Russian
troops were left behind.
The war is far from over and could still turn Russia’s way if the Russian military can
launch a successful operation in eastern Ukraine. The current line of Russian occupation in
southern and eastern Ukraine is still a significant gain in Russian-controlled territory since the start of
the war. If a ceasefire or peace agreement freezes a line like the current front-line trace, Russia will be
able to exert much greater pressure on Ukraine than it did before the invasion and may over time
reassemble a more effective invasion force. Ukraine’s victory in the Battle of Kyiv is thus significant but
not decisive.
The disorder of the Russian withdrawal suggests that at least some of the units now
reconcentrating in Belarus and western Russia will remain combat ineffective for a
protracted period. Russian troops attempting to refit after pulling back from around Kyiv will likely
have to reconsolidate into their units, identify which soldiers are still present, sort out their equipment
and assess its combat readiness, and generally reconstitute before they can even begin to receive
replacements and new equipment and prepare for further combat operations.
Russian forces are likely abandoning the east bank of the Dnipro fully as well,
withdrawing from around Chernihiv to the north and from Brovary to the east. Russian
troops will likely seek to hold a salient around Konotop and Sumy long enough to allow their forces to
complete their retrograde from near Kyiv but will then likely withdraw back to Russia from almost all
their positions west of Kharkiv.
Moscow is attempting to concentrate reserves and some units pulled from the fight
around Sumy to reinforce its offensive operations in the east but is encountering serious
challenges in that effort. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 3 that Russian soldiers are
resisting and in some cases refusing orders to enter or re-enter the war effort. The General Staff asserted
that the two battalion tactical groups (BTGs) that moved from South Ossetia toward Donbas less than
a week ago refused to fight and that plans to move them back to South Ossetia are in train.
