1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Karolina Hird
March 31, 6:00 pm ET
Ukrainian forces conducted several local counterattacks around Kyiv, in northeastern
Ukraine, and toward Kherson on March 31, successfully pressuring Russian forces and
seeking to disrupt ongoing Russian troop rotations. Ukrainian forces northwest of Kyiv pushed
Russian forces north of the E-40 highway and will likely assault Russian-held Bucha and Hostomel in
the coming days. Ukrainian forces exploited limited Russian withdrawals east of Brovary to retake
territory across Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblasts. Ukrainian forces likely conducted counterattacks toward
Sumy in the past 24 hours as well, though ISW cannot independently confirm these reports. Finally,
Ukrainian forces conducted limited counterattacks in northern Kherson Oblast. Russian forces only
conducted offensive operations in Donbas and against Mariupol in the last 24 hours and did not make
any major advances.
Russian efforts to redeploy damaged units from the Kyiv and Sumy axes to eastern
Ukraine are unlikely to enable Russian forces to conduct major gains. Russia continued to
withdraw elements of the 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies and 76 Air Assault Division from their
positions northwest of Kyiv into Belarus for refit and likely further redeployment to eastern Ukraine.
However, these units are likely heavily damaged and demoralized. Feeding damaged Eastern Military
District units directly into operations in eastern Ukraine—predominantly conducted by the Southern
Military District—will likely prove ineffective and additionally introduce further command-and-control
challenges for the Russian military. Russian forces will likely attempt to retain their current front lines
around Kyiv and in northeastern Ukraine and will continue to dig in on these fronts; ISW has not seen
any indicators of Russian forces fully relinquishing captured territory. However, Ukrainian
counterattacks are likely disrupting Russian efforts to redeploy and refit their forces and will continue
in the coming days.
Key Takeaways
• Ukrainian forces successfully conducted local counterattacks around Kyiv,
towards Sumy, and in Kherson Oblast and will likely take further territory—
particularly northwest and east of Kyiv—in the coming days.
• Russia is withdrawing elements of its damaged forces around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and
Sumy for redeployment to eastern Ukraine, but these units are unlikely to provide
a decisive shift in Russian combat power.
• Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian assaults throughout Donetsk and
Luhansk Oblasts, and Russian forces failed to take territory in the past 24 hours.
• Russian forces continue to steadily advance in Mariupol.
• Russia’s preplanned spring draft will begin on April 1 and does not appear
abnormal from Russia’s typical conscription cycle. Newly drafted conscripts will
not provide Russia with additional combat power for many months.
• The Kremlin is likely accelerating efforts to establish quasi-state entities to govern
occupied Ukrainian territory.
