1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark and George Barros
March 28, 4:30pm ET
Ukrainian forces recaptured Irpin, northwest of Kyiv, on March 28. Ongoing Ukrainian
counterattacks around Kyiv will likely disrupt ongoing Russian efforts to reconstitute
forces and resume major offensive operations to encircle Kyiv. Ukrainian forces additionally
repelled Russian attacks toward Brovary, east of Kyiv, in the past 24 hours. Russian forces in
northeastern Ukraine remain stalled and did not conduct offensive operations against Chernihiv, Sumy,
or Kharkiv in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to make grinding progress in Mariupol but
were unable to secure territory in either Donbas or toward Mykolayiv.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces have not abandoned their objective to encircle and capture Kyiv,
despite Kremlin claims that Russian forces will concentrate on eastern Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recaptured the Kyiv suburb of Irpin on March 28. Ukrainian
forces will likely seek to take advantage of ongoing Russian force rotations to
retake further territory northwest of Kyiv in the coming days.
• Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks toward Brovary and did not
conduct offensive operations toward Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv. Russian
operations in northeastern Ukraine remain stalled.
• The Ukrainian General Staff stated that a battalion tactical group (BTG) of the 1st
Guards Tank Army fully withdrew from Ukrainian territory near Sumy back to
Russia for possible redeployment – the first Ukrainian report of a Russian unit
fully withdrawing into Russia for redeployment to another axis of advance in this
conflict.
• Russian forces continued to steadily take territory in Mariupol.
• Ukrainian resistance around Kherson continues to tie down Russian forces in the
area. Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in the southern
direction.
