1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 24, 6:30 pm ET
Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress in Mariupol, entering the city center on
March 24, but conducted few offensive operations elsewhere in the country. Ukrainian counterattacks
northwest of Kyiv in the past several days continue to relieve pressure on the city and Russian forces
continued to dig in. Ukrainian forces repelled limited Russian attacks northeast of the city and around
Kharkiv.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces entered central Mariupol on March 24 and continued to take
ground across the city. Local Ukrainian authorities left the city in order to better
coordinate regional operations amid the deteriorating situation in Mariupol itself.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a successful attack on Russian ships docked at the
occupied port of Berdyansk, likely sinking a landing ship and damaging or sinking
another. Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to inflict serious damage on Berdyansk
may disrupt Russian forces from renewing attempts to reinforce operations in
Mariupol and around Kherson by sea.
• Ukrainian forces did not retake any territory in continuing counterattacks
northwest of Kyiv but forced Russian troops onto the defensive.
• Ukrainian forces repelled renewed Russian attempts to advance toward Brovary
from the northeast and complete the encirclement of Chernihiv.
• Russian forces continue to shell Kharkiv and struck a humanitarian aid delivery
point, killing six and wounding 15.
• Russian forces secured several minor advances in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in
the last 24 hours.
The Ukrainian government and military directly stated for the first time on March 24
that the Kremlin believes its invasion of Ukraine has entered a second, “protracted”
phase. The head of Zelensky’s office, Myhailo Podolyak, stated that Russia seeks to turn the war into
a partially “protracted phase” due to high losses in personnel and equipment and the lack of significant
progress in any direction. Podolyak stated the Kremlin is changing its tactics and going on the defensive
to reduce Russian casualties “to an acceptable (from a propaganda point of view) level.”
