1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 26
Fredrick W. Kagan and George Barros
March 26, 3:00 pm ET
Russian forces continued their unsuccessful efforts to move into positions from which
to attack or encircle Kyiv, claims by First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff
Sergei Rudskoi on March 25 notwithstanding. The Russian military continues to concentrate
replacements and reinforcements in Belarus and Russia north of Kyiv, to fight for positions on Kyiv’s
outskirts, and to attempt to complete the encirclement and reduction of Chernihiv. Russian activities
around Kyiv show no change in the Russian high command’s prioritization of the fight around
Ukraine’s capital, which continues to occupy the largest single concentration of Russian ground forces
in Ukraine. The Russians have not claimed to redeploy forces from Kyiv or any other part of Ukraine
to concentrate on fighting in Donbas, and we have observed numerous indicators that they have not
done so. The increasingly static nature of the fighting around Kyiv reflects the incapacity of Russian
forces rather than any shift in Russian objectives or efforts at this time.
Russian forces will likely bisect the city of Mariupol in the coming days as they claim
and will likely gain control of the city in the relatively near future. Fighting in Mariupol
continues to be fierce, however, and Russian forces continue to suffer significant losses. The amount
of combat power the Russians will be able to harvest from Mariupol once they gain control of the city
will determine whether the city’s fall will allow the Russians to launch renewed large-scale offensive
operations in Ukraine’s east. It remains unclear how badly damaged Russian units fighting for
Mariupol are—or how much more damage they will incur in completing the capture of the city—but
high-profile casualties in elite and conventional Russian combat units such as the 810th Naval
Infantry Brigade and the 150th Motorized Rifle Division, both of which have lost commanders in the
past few weeks, suggest that losses in such units are high.
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Ukrainian forces continue to conduct limited counter-attacks across the theater, most
recently near Kharkiv. Ukrainian counter-attacks have been prudent and effective, allowing
Ukrainian forces to regain small areas of tactically or operationally significant terrain without over-
extending themselves.
Key Takeaways
Russian forces continue their unsuccessful efforts to secure positions from which
to attack and seize Kyiv despite the supposed reframing of the Russian military’s
priorities by First Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff Sergei Rudskoi on
March 25.
The Russians will likely make important progress in seizing the city of Mariupol
in the coming days and will probably take the city in the near future. The scale of
Russian losses in the fight for Mariupol will determine whether the city’s fall will
permit Russia to renew large-scale combat operations in eastern Ukraine. It is
too soon to tell, but current indicators suggest that Russian losses have been and
will continue to be high.
The Ukrainian General Staff continues to report on challenges Russia faces in
finding both troops and equipment to continue the war. The General Staff reports
generally match observed patterns and indicators within the Ukrainian
battlespace and are likely largely accurate, although we have little independent
verification of their details.
