1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 23, 5:00pm ET
Russian forces continued to settle in for a protracted and stalemated conflict over the last 24 hours,
with more reports emerging of Russian troops digging in and laying mines—indications that they have
gone over to the defensive. Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited and effective counterattacks
to relieve pressure on Kyiv, although the extent of those counterattacks is likely less than what some
Ukrainian officials are claiming. Russian efforts to mobilize additional forces to keep their offensive
moving continue to be halting and limited. Russian progress in taking Mariupol city remains slow and
grinding. Increasing Russian emphasis on using air, artillery, and rocket/missile bombardments of
Ukrainian cities to offset forward offensive momentum raises the urgency of providing Ukraine with
systems to defend against these attacks.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces continue to go over to the defensive, conducting restricted and
localized ground attacks that make little progress.
• Ukrainian forces are conducting limited and successful counterattacks around
Kyiv to disrupt Russian operations to encircle the city (which has now become
extremely unlikely) and relieve the pressure on the capital.
• The Battle of Mariupol continues as a block-by-block struggle with fierce Ukrainian
resistance and limited Russian gains.
• Russia is likely struggling to obtain fresh combat power from Syria and elsewhere
rapidly.
Russian efforts to bring Syrian forces into Ukraine may be encountering challenges.
Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) reports that a Russian commander in Syria met with the
commander of the Syrian Arab Army’s 8th Brigade to request a list of Syrian personnel ready to fight
in Ukraine, but that the Syrian commander promised only to respond after consulting with his
colleagues.
We have no independent verification of this report. ISW’s Middle East Team is preparing a
brief report on Russian efforts to mobilize Syrian forces to support the war in Ukraine and will publish
it in the coming days.
Russian mobilization efforts are likely becoming urgent given Russian losses in the war.
The Wall Street Journal cites an unnamed NATO official claiming that Russia has lost as many as
40,000 troops killed, wounded, or missing of the roughly 190,000 deployed to invade Ukraine.
The protracting pause of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine and increasing anecdotal
reporting of breakdowns in the morale and capability of Russian combat units all accord with these
assessments. These reports and assessments collectively suggest that Russia may not be able to find
new combat power with which to regain offensive momentum for weeks or even months.
Russian forces are increasingly preparing for protracted defensive operations in various
parts of the theater. Numerous reports and satellite images of Russian troops digging defensive
positions and laying mines suggest that they have gone over to the defensive and do not anticipate
