1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 17, 5:30pm ET
Russian forces did not make any major advances and Ukrainian forces carried out
several local counterattacks on March 17.
Russian forces made little territorial progress and
continued to deploy reserve elements—including from the 1st Guards Tank Army and 810th Naval
Infantry Brigade—in small force packets that are unlikely to prove decisive. Russian forces continue to
suffer heavy casualties around Kharkiv, and Russian attempts to bypass the city of Izyum are unlikely
to succeed. Russian forces continued assaults on Mariupol on March 17 but did not conduct any other
successful advances from Crimea.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces continue to make steady territorial gains around Mariupol and are
increasingly targeting residential areas of the city.
• Ukrainian forces northwest of Kyiv launched several local counterattacks and
inflicted heavy damage on Russian forces.
• Ukrainian forces repelled Russian operations around Kharkiv and reported killing
a regimental commander.
• Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia may have expended nearly its entire
store of precision cruise missiles in the first twenty days of its invasion.
• Russian forces deployed unspecified reserve elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army
and Baltic Fleet Naval Infantry to northeastern Ukraine on March 17.
• Russia may be parceling out elements of the reserve force that could conduct an
amphibious operation along the Black Sea coast to support ongoing assaults on
Mariupol, further reducing the likelihood of a Russian amphibious assault on
Odesa.
• Ukrainian forces shot down 10 Russian aircraft—including five jets, three
helicopters, and two UAVs—on March 16, and Ukrainian forces continue to
successfully contest Russian air operations.
Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat casualties and replacing expended
munitions. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 17 that Russian forces will begin another wave
of mobilization for the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) 1st Army Corps on March 20.
It is unclear if the Ukrainian
General Staff means Russian forces have used almost all precision munitions earmarked for the
operation in Ukraine or almost all missiles in Russia’s total arsenal—though likely the former.
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported several details on Russian efforts to
recruit Syrian mercenaries on March 17.
The GUR reported that the Russian military ordered its base
in Hmeimim, Syria to send up to 300 fighters from Syria to Ukraine daily. The GUR additionally
reported that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has promised to recruit 40,000 Syrian fighters to deploy
to Ukraine. The GUR reported Russian authorities are promising Syrian recruits that they will
exclusively act as police in occupied territories. Finally, the GUR reported low morale among Syrian
