1 Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 15, 5:30 pm ET
Local company- and battalion-level attacks by Russian forces northwest of Kyiv on March
14-15 likely indicate the largest-scale offensive operations that Russian forces attempting
to encircle Kyiv can support at this time. Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations
northeast of the city, around Sumy, and only limited (and unsuccessful) attacks southeast of Kharkiv.
Russian force generation efforts, including reservist and conscript call-ups and the ongoing transport
of Syrian fighters to Russia and Belarus, are unable to change the balance of forces around Kyiv within
the coming week. Russian forces have not conducted simultaneous attacks along their
multiple axes of advance across Ukraine since March 4 and are unlikely to do so in the
next week.
Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine continue to demonstrate the greatest capabilities to date and
are steadily advancing in three directions: northeast from Kherson, taking territory in Donetsk and
Luhansk Oblasts, and reducing the Ukrainian pocket in Mariupol. Russian forces are unlikely to
successfully encircle Mykolayiv and threaten Odesa in the near future but retain uncommitted Naval
Infantry reserves that could conduct an amphibious operation or disembark to reinforce Russian
ground operations, as Russia has employed Naval Infantry elsewhere. Russia may seek to encircle
Zaporizhya by advancing northeast up the west bank of the Dnipro River after failing to break through
Ukrainian forces directly south of the city on the east bank. Russian forces are making slow but steady
progress against Ukrainian defenders on the line of contact in Donbas and likely seek to force them out
of their prepared defensive positions.
With Russian forces likely unable to complete the encirclement of Kyiv or resume mobile
offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine in the near future, the Russian capture of
Mariupol will likely be the next key inflection in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian
forces have successfully encircled Mariupol and are conducting daily assaults on the western and
eastern outskirts of the city. Russian air, missile, and artillery strikes continue to target residential areas
and civilian infrastructure to force the city to capitulate. Russian forces have encircled the city to a depth
that will likely prevent the defenders from breaking out and prevent Ukrainian efforts to relieve the
defenders. Russian forces will likely be able to capture Mariupol or force it to capitulate despite strong
Ukrainian defenses. The Russian capture of Mariupol will free up Russian forces, likely including large
portions of the 8th Combined Arms Army, to threaten Ukrainian defenders along the line of contact in
Donbas with encirclement or alternatively reinforce a Russian offensive toward Mykolayiv and Odesa.
This assessment assumes that the defenders in Mariupol will run out of ammunition and/or water at
some point in the relatively near future. Mariupol has been heavily fortified for years, however, and it
is possible that its defenders secured sufficient supplies in advance to hold out longer. The Russians
will likely continue to escalate bombardments to the point of simply destroying the city if that appears
to be the case, but the reduction of Mariupol in this way could take considerably longer.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces are unlikely to launch offensive operations to encircle Kyiv larger
than the scattered Russian attacks observed northwest of Kyiv targeting Irpin on
March 14 and Guta-Mezhyhirska on March 15 within the coming week but may
launch further tactical attacks.
• Russian forces continued to assault Mariupol from the east and west.
