1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 21, 5:30pm ET
Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 21. Russian forces northwest and northeast
of Kyiv continued to shell the city and strengthen defensive positions but did not conduct major
offensive operations. Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations toward the northeastern
Ukrainian cities of Chernihiv, Sumy, or Kharkiv in the last 24 hours. Russian forces continued to reduce
the Mariupol pocket and conducted several unsuccessful assaults in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts but
did not launch any offensive operations around Kherson.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations northwest of Kyiv and
further reinforced their defensive positions.
• Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine and
have been unable to solve logistics issues.
• Russian forces continued to make slow but steady progress and shell civilian
infrastructure in Mariupol.
• Russian and proxy forces conducted several unsuccessful assaults in Donetsk and
Luhansk Oblasts in the past 24 hours.
• Russia continues to deploy low-quality reserves, including combat-support
elements and low-readiness units from the Eastern Military District, to replace
losses in frontline units.
• The Ukranian General Staff warned that Russia seeks to conduct a provocation to
bring Belarus into the war, but a Belarusian offensive into western Ukraine
remains unlikely to occur or succeed if it did.
