1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threasts Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 14, 5:00 pm ET
Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not
conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces continue
to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern
operational directions. Ongoing Russian efforts to replace combat losses with both Russian
replacements and non-Russian sources, including Syrian fighters and the Wagner Group, are unlikely
to enable Russia to resume major offensive operations within the coming week.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces conducted several limited attacks northwest of Kyiv on March 14,
unsuccessfully attempting to bridge the Irpin River.
• Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations east of Kyiv and continued to
prioritize improving logistics and reinforcing combat units.
• The continued ability of Ukrainian forces to carry out successful local
counterattacks around Kharkiv indicates that Russian forces are unlikely to
successfully bypass Kharkiv from the southeast to advance toward Dnipro and
Zaporizhia in the near term.
• Russian and proxy forces continue to achieve slow but steady territorial gains in
Donetsk Oblast after initial failures in the first week of the Russian invasion.
• Ukrainian forces halted resumed Russian attacks from Kherson toward Mykolayiv
and Kryvyi Rih on March 14.
• Russia will likely deploy small units of Syrian fighters to Ukraine within the week
and is confirmed to have deployed private military company (PMC) forces.
• Russian and Belarusian forces increased their activity near the Ukrainian border
in the last 24 hours in a likely effort to pin down Ukrainian forces but likely do not
have the capability to open a new axis of advance into western Ukraine.
• Russia and China deny that Russia seeks military aid from China and claimed that
Russia does not need additional military support to complete its objectives in
Ukraine.
Russia continues to face difficulties replacing combat losses and increasingly seeks to
leverage irregular forces including Russian PMCs and Syrian fighters. The Ukrainian
General Staff claimed that Russian servicemen are increasingly refusing to travel to Ukraine despite
promises of veteran status and higher salaries.
