1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 12, 4:00 pm EST
Russian forces secured limited advances east of Kyiv and north from Crimea on March
12 but continue to face logistical challenges, mounting casualties, and sustained
Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv
in the past 24 hours. Russian forces made limited advances around Chernihiv and toward Kyiv’s eastern
outskirts after pausing for several days. Continued Ukrainian counterattacks and successful operations
by Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces continue to threaten Russia’s long line of communication in
northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces captured unspecified “eastern outskirts” of Mariupol on March
12 and continue to shell the city in a likely effort to force it to capitulate.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv for the
second day in a row.
• Russian forces resumed limited attacks toward northeastern Kyiv and renewed
efforts to fully encircle Chernihiv.
• Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in northeastern Ukraine are likely forcing
Russia to redeploy forces away from offensive operations toward Kyiv to
consolidate its long line of communication.
• Russian forces made limited territorial gains in eastern Mariupol and continued
to shell the city.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian forces conducted a new advance
northeast from Kherson along the western bank of the Dnipro.
• The Ukrainian military claimed to have damaged or destroyed 31 Russian battalion
tactical groups (BTGs) as of March 11.
• The Kremlin likely seeks to deter continuing Western military aid shipments to
Ukraine, threatening that Russia will view Western military aid shipments to
Ukraine as legitimate military targets on March 12.
