1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 13, 4:00 pm EST
Russian forces again conducted few ground offensives on March 13, only securing new
terrain in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian
forces predominantly took measures to restore combat readiness and regrouped combat units as of
noon local time on March 13.
Russian forces continue to assemble reinforcements and attempt to
improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern operational directions. Russian forces may
intend to resume larger-scale attacks on both axes of advance in the coming week, but will likely take
longer to (or may never) cohere the combat power necessary to complete the encirclement of Kyiv.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv for the third
day in a row.
• Russian forces did not conduct attacks toward northeastern Kyiv and prioritized
reinforcing their lines of communication and logistics routes.
• Russian and proxy forces successfully captured several towns north of Mariupol in
Donetsk Oblast on March 13, the only offensive ground actions of the day.
• Ukrainian protests in occupied Kherson are likely expanding.
• Russia is diluting its international deployments in Armenia and Nagorno-
Karabakh to reinforce operations in Ukraine and pulling additional forces from
Russia’s far east.
• Ukrainian intelligence reported Russia will deploy preexisting pro-Assad Syrian
units to Ukraine, in addition to previously announced plans to recruit new Syrian
and Libyan mercenaries. These forces are unlikely to enable Russia to favorably
change the balance of forces around Kyiv in the next week but may provide a
longer-term pool of low-quality replacements.
• Russian ballistic missiles killed 35 Ukrainians at the Yavoriv military training
center near Poland in a likely effort to interdict Western aid deliveries to Ukraine—
following up on the Kremlin’s March 12 announcement it will treat international
aid shipments as military targets.
