1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 11, 5:30pm EST
Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv began another pause to
resupply and refit combat units on March 11 after failed attacks March 8-10. Russian
forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv. Russian advances from Crimea toward
Mykolayiv and Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made no progress in the last
24 hours, and Russian forces in the south face growing morale and supply issues. The Ukrainian
General Staff asserted Russia has so far failed to take its territorial objectives for the war and will
likely increasingly turn to strikes on civilian targets and psychological operations to undermine
civilian support for the Ukrainian government.
Uncoordinated and sporadic Russian offensive
operations against major Ukrainian cities support the Ukrainian General Staff’s assessment that
Russian forces face growing morale and supply issues and have lost the initiative. The Ukrainian
General Staff stated on March 11 that Ukrainian forces are “actively defending and conducting
successful counterattacks in all directions,” but did not state where reported counterattacks are
occurring.
The Kremlin likely seeks to increase its combat power by drawing Belarus into the war
and leveraging Syrian proxies, in addition to ongoing efforts to directly replace Russian
combat losses through individual conscripts that are unlikely to be well-enough trained
or motivated to generate effective new combat power. Putin is reportedly conducting an
internal purge of general offers and intelligence personnel and recalibrating Russia’s war effort to
sustain combat operations far longer than the Kremlin initially planned. Russia likely requires a new
wave of combat-effective reservists or recruits in a short period of time to achieve its objectives in
Ukraine but is unlikely to be able to generate such a wave. Russian aircraft likely conducted an
attempted false-flag attack on Belarusian territory on March 11. The Kremlin is likely pressuring
Belarus to enter the war in Ukraine to support Russian forces, though Belarusian President
Lukashenko is likely attempting to delay or prevent his entry into the war to avoid costly Western
sanctions and Belarusian combat losses. The Kremlin additionally announced plans on March 11 to
deploy foreign fighters, including up to 16,000 Syrian fighters, to Ukraine. The Kremlin is highly
unlikely to abandon its continuing main effort to encircle and capture Kyiv and will continue to feed
replacements and reinforcements into this operation.
Key Takeaways
• Russian operations around Kyiv remained largely stalled over the past 24 hours
and Russian forces conducted another pause to resupply and refit frontline units.
• Russian forces did not secure any new territory in northeastern Ukraine and may
be redeploying forces attacking eastern Kyiv to defend against Ukrainian
counterattacks in Sumy Oblast.
• Russian forces remain pinned down attempting to reduce Mariupol by siege and
bombardment.
• Ukrainian forces halted Russian advances north and west from Crimea as
Russian forces face growing supply and morale issues.
• Russian aircraft likely conducted an attempted false-flag attack on Belarusian
territory on March 11 in an effort to draw Belarus into the war.
