1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 10, 4:00 pm EST
The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian
ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be
largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian
advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around
Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely
retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more
effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of
such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military
to date. There are as yet no indications that the Russian military is reorganizing,
reforming, learning lessons, or taking other measures that would lead to a sudden
change in the pace or success of its operations, although the numerical disparities
between Russia and Ukraine leave open the possibility that Moscow will be able to
restore rapid mobility or effective urban warfare to the battlefield.
Russian forces around Kyiv did not attempt to renew offensive operations on a multi-battalion scale on
March 10 following the failure of limited efforts on March 8-9. Ukrainian forces badly damaged a
Russian armored column in the Brovary area east of Kyiv, likely further disrupting Russian efforts to
set conditions for offensive operations on the east bank of the Dnipro. Ukrainian resistance all along
the Russian lines of communication from eastern Kyiv to the Russian border near Sumy continues to
disrupt Russian efforts to bring more combat power to bear near the capital. The episodic, limited, and
largely unsuccessful Russian offensive operations around Kyiv increasingly support the Ukrainian
General Staff’s repeated assessments that Russia lacks the combat power near the capital to launch
successful offensive operations on a large scale.
Key Takeaways
• Russian operations around Kyiv remained largely stalled over the past 24 hours.
• Ukrainian forces badly damaged a Russian armored unit east of the capital, likely
disrupting Russian efforts to encircle or assault the city from the east.
• Russian forces continue to struggle in efforts to seize Chernihiv city and to secure
the long ground lines of communication from Sumy, which the Ukrainians still
hold, to eastern Kyiv.
• A new Russian invasion from western Belarus, with or without Belarusian ground
forces’ support, appears increasingly unlikely.
• Russian forces remain pinned down attempting to reduce Mariupol by siege and
bombardment.
• Russian efforts to bypass Mykolayiv and establish a reliable ground line of
communication across the Southern Bug River to the north of Mykolayiv remain
stalled.
• Ukrainian air force and air defense operations continue to hinder Russian ground
forces maneuver by likely limiting Russian close air support and exposing Russian
mechanized forces to Ukrainian air and artillery attacks.
