1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Fredrick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 8, 3:00 PM EST
Russian forces continued concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western
outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming 24-96 hours. The reported
appearance of forces belonging to Chechen leader Ramazan Kadyrov, Russia’s Rosgvardia internal
security formations, and the Liga (former Wagner) Private Military Company in the western outskirts
of Kyiv may indicate that the Russian military is struggling to assemble sufficient conventional combat
power to launch its assault on the capital. Russian forces near Kyiv made limited gains and prepared
for limited drives to continue their attempted encirclement to the west.
Ukrainian forces have continued to challenge the lengthy Russian ground lines of communication
leading from near Sumy to eastern Kyiv. Russian forces near Kharkiv have been steadily diverting to
secure and extend those lines over the past few days, as we have reported. The Ukrainian General Staff
reported on March 8 that Russian troops currently near Chernihiv appear to be moving east. We assess
that those forces may seek to link up with troops coming from near Sumy to help them consolidate and
protect their extended lines in support of the planned offensive against Kyiv.
The situation in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Ukraine remained largely unchanged in the past 24
hours. Ukrainian General Staff reporting of additional Russian efforts to advance on the city of
Zaporizhya likely confirm that Russia intends to make blocking that city a priority. The forces Russia is
so far moving toward Zaporizhya appear to be far too small to encircle or take it.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces are consolidating and preparing for further operations along the
western and eastern outskirts of Kyiv, especially in the Irpin area in the west and
the Brovary area in the east;
• Ukrainian forces are challenging the extended Russian lines reaching from Sumy,
which Russian forces have not yet taken, to the eastern outskirts of Kyiv;
• Russian troops are likely attempting to bypass Mykolayiv and cross the Southern
Bug upriver of that city to permit an advance on Odesa combined with an
impending amphibious operation against that city; and
• Russian forces are also driving north from Crimea toward the city of Zaporizhya.
