1 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7
Fredrick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 7, 3:00 PM EST
Russian forces are concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of
Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming 24-96 hours. The Russians are bringing
up supplies and reinforcements as well as conducting artillery, air, and missile attacks
to weaken defenses and intimidate defenders in advance of such an assault. It is too soon
to gauge the likely effectiveness of any Russian attempt to complete the encirclement of Kyiv or to
seize the city at this time. If Russian troops have been able to resupply, reorganize, and plan
deliberate and coordinated simultaneous operations along the several axes of advance around and
into the capital, they may be more successful in this operation than they have in previous
undertakings. Operations near Kyiv in the past 72 hours have not offered enough evidence to evaluate
that likelihood.
Russian troops in southern Ukraine continue to divide their efforts between attacks westward toward
Mykolayiv and Odesa, attacks northward toward Zaporizhya, and attacks eastward toward Mariupol
and Donbas. Failure to focus on any single line of advance has likely hindered Russian operations and
will probably continue to do so. Russian troops in Kherson Oblast appear to be feeling their way
around Mykolayiv, likely seeking to find a route across the Southern Bug River that would allow them
to bypass Mykolayiv itself and resume their advance on Odesa. Those heading toward Zaporizhya
currently lack the combat power likely necessary to encircle or take that large city. They could,
however, set conditions for successful operations against Zaporizhya once reinforcements arrive
following the fall of Mariupol and the opening of a wide land route westward from Donbas.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces are consolidating and preparing for further operations along the
western and eastern outskirts of Kyiv, especially in the Irpin area on the west and
the Brovary area on the east;
• Ukrainian forces are challenging the extended Russian lines reaching from Sumy,
which Russian forces have not yet taken, to the eastern outskirts of Kyiv;
• Russian troops are likely attempting to bypass Mykolayiv and cross the Southern
Bug upriver of that city to permit an advance on Odesa that will combine with an
impending amphibious operation against that city; and
• Russian forces are driving north from Crimea toward the city of Zaporizhya.
Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:
• Main effort—Kyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
• Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv;
o Supporting effort 1a—Luhansk Oblast;
• Supporting effort 2—Mariupol; and
• Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances westward.
