1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Fredrick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Katya Stepanenko
March 5, 3:00 PM EST
Russian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause on March 5 as
they prepare to resume operations against Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolayiv, and possibly Odesa in the
next 24-48 hours. Russian troops did not launch major ground offensive operations against Kyiv, Kharkiv, or
Mykolayiv in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian forces near Kharkiv, on the other hand, conducted a counter-offensive
that reportedly penetrated to the Ukrainian-Russian border.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces conducted no major offensive operations against the cities of Kyiv,
Kharkiv, or Mykolayiv in the past 24 hours;
• Russian troops continued to encircle, bomb, and shell Mariupol;
• Russian forces east of Kharkiv and in northern Luhansk Oblast appear to be trying to link
up;
• Russian troops around Kherson city are likely preparing to resume offensive operations
against Mykolayiv and ultimately Odesa; and
• Russian naval infantry in Crimea continue to prepare for amphibious operations, which
would most likely occur near Odesa.
Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:
• Main effort—Kyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
• Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv;
o Supporting effort 1a—Luhansk Oblast;
• Supporting effort 2—Mariupol; and
• Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances westward.
