1 Institute for the Study of War and The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4
Fredrick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 4, 3:00 pm EST
Russian forces continue their focus on encircling Kyiv. The western envelopment
remains bogged down but Russian troops have moved more rapidly from the east and
are arriving in the capital’s outskirts on the Sumy axis. The speed of the advance from
the east is likely to slow as Russian forces leave sparsely-inhabited and flat terrain and
enter the more congested and built-up eastern suburbs. Russian mechanized forces
around Kharkiv appear to be supporting operations toward the east and west of the city,
likely weakening their ability to encircle or seize it.
The Russian military has concentrated considerable combat power around Mariupol to encircle and
ultimately seize or destroy it. The purpose of this effort is not entirely clear. The capture or destruction
of Mariupol will not likely materially affect the outcome of the war, whose decisive operations are more
than 600 kilometers northwest around Kyiv. Russian forces have also renewed their ground offensive
west from Crimea toward Odesa, currently focusing on advancing from Kherson to Mykolayiv, and
seized the Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant north of Crimea. The continued pursuit of objectives along
three diverging axes by the same group of forces in Crimea has hindered the Russian military’s ability
to generate decisive effects on any of the three.
Key Takeaways
• Russian forces have advanced rapidly on the eastern outskirts of Kyiv likely from
the Sumy axis and may attempt to encircle and/or attack the capital on the east
bank of the Dnipro in the coming 24-48 hours;
• Russian troops did not press a ground offensive against Kharkiv in the last 24
hours but have instead diverted forces to the west and southeast, likely supporting
efforts against Kyiv and in and around Donbas respectively;
• Russian troops have surrounded Mariupol and are attacking it brutally to compel
its capitulation or destroy it;
• Russian forces have renewed their ground advance on Mykolayiv, having secured
Kherson city, likely to set conditions for a further attack toward Odesa. Russian
naval infantry are likely poised to conduct amphibious landings near Odesa when
Russian forces have secured or are close to securing a reliable ground route from
Crimea to Odesa.
