1 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 2, 4:30 pm EST
Russian forces resumed offensive operations in support of their envelopment of Kyiv on March 2 but made
few territorial advances. Russian forces resumed offensive operations on both axes of advance toward Kyiv
after largely pausing for 72 hours to reinforce and resupply their troops north and west of Kyiv. Russian
operations to envelop Kyiv are Moscow’s main effort. Russian troops are also undertaking three supporting
efforts, one to seize Kharkiv, one to take Mariupol and secure the “land bridge” connecting Rostov-on-Don to
Crimea, and one to secure Kherson and set conditions for a drive west toward Mykolayiv and Odesa. The three
supporting operations were active in the last 24 hours; Russian forces likely captured Kherson and began a
bombardment of critical civilian infrastructure in Mariupol in a likely effort to force the city to surrender while
making few territorial gains in Kharkiv.
The Russian attack on Kyiv likely consists of a main effort aimed at enveloping and ultimately encircling the
city from the west and a supporting effort along the axes from Chernihiv and Sumy to encircle it from the
east. The long Russian column of combat and logistics vehicles observed north of Kyiv in the last 48 hours is
likely now supporting attacks directly into the city from positions Russian forces maintain in Kyiv’s northwestern
outskirts. However, Russian forces are more likely to prioritize the envelopment/encirclement in the coming
days, rather than a direct assault into the city.
Russian forces resumed frontal assaults on Kharkiv on March 2 and continued using area-attack weapons,
dramatically increasing the damage to civilian infrastructure and civilian casualties. Russian ground forces
appear to be conducting another frontal assault on Kharkiv from the northeast rather than enveloping the city
and will likely face protracted Ukrainian resistance.
Russian forces in the south likely secured Kherson, began bombarding civilian infrastructure in Mariupol in a
likely attempt to force the city to surrender without a direct assault, and appear to be holding their positions
south of Zaporizhya. Russian forces will likely resume offensive operations towards Mikolayiv in the next 24
hours but do not appear to pose an imminent danger to Odesa. Russian forces likely seek to force Mariupol to
capitulate by destroying critical civilian infrastructure and killing civilians to create a humanitarian catastrophe
– an approach Russian forces have repeatedly taken in Syria.
A Russian drive north through or near Zaprozhya
to cut off Ukrainian forces fighting along the line of contact appears very unlikely in the next 24-72 hours.
Russian forces are receiving needed supplies and reinforcements that may facilitate much more rapid and
effective operations in the coming 24-72 hours. The Russian effort around Kyiv remains poorly organized,
however, with elements of many different battalions combined into what seem to be ad hoc groupings rather
than operating under standing regiment or brigade headquarters. The initial errors in the Russian force
composition and organization in Belarus and western Russia that ISW has previously reported on, which
contributed to Russian logistical and operational failures around Kyiv, will be difficult to remedy quickly and will
likely continue to cause friction and reduce the effectiveness of Russian operations even as supply issues are
addressed and reinforcements come into the fight.
